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Virginia Election Victory Boosts Democrats and Signals a Potential Turnaround for Biden

Democrats' sweeping win in Virginia's legislative elections signals a potential turnaround for President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. It indicates that voter discontent with Biden may not significantly affect Democrats' electoral performance. The campaign's emphasis on abortion rights played a pivotal role, with these results possibly paving the way for future victories.

Democrats sweeping control of the state legislature — which both parties believed was in play — will serve as a boost to Joe Biden’s reelection campaign next year. | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

Virginia’s recent electoral victory by Democrats holds profound implications for both local and national politics, presenting a favorable outlook for President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. This off-year election, widely considered a bellwether for the political environment, has demonstrated that voter dissatisfaction with Biden’s presidency may not pose as significant an electoral burden for Democrats as initially feared.

Election Results and Implications

The election saw Democrats securing control of the state legislature, overcoming earlier concerns from both parties about the outcome being in contention. Importantly, this outcome indicates that the broader aversion to Biden’s presidency may not necessarily translate into electoral setbacks for Democrats. While Biden claimed Virginia by a 10-point margin in 2020, his approval ratings in the state and nationwide have consistently lagged.

In a mid-October survey, Biden’s job approval rating stood at just 43 percent among registered voters, with 55 percent expressing disapproval. These figures placed him below his 2020 vote share in Virginia, making him less popular than Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, whose 2021 election victory was seen as a rebuke of Democratic leadership in Washington.

Implications for the GOP and 2024

Youngkin, while not on the ballot in these elections, significantly invested in the campaign, positioning himself as a prominent face in the Republicans’ push to regain control of the state legislature. A win would have granted Youngkin substantial influence in a predominantly blue state on the federal level. However, voters, despite their distaste for Biden, cast their votes for Democrats in crucial battleground districts.

These districts closely resemble areas where the fight for control of the White House will be intense nationwide in 2024, including suburban swing districts that have gradually shifted away from the GOP since the emergence of Donald Trump.

Abortion as a Central Campaign Theme

Democrats achieved victory by centralizing their campaign around abortion rights, with Virginia being one of the last Southern states maintaining access to abortion. The party argued that unified Republican governance would endanger this access. Abortion was the most prominent issue in Democratic campaign ads, mentioned significantly more frequently than education, which was the second most discussed topic.

Impact on the 2024 Presidential Race

These electoral wins also suggest that Gov. Youngkin does not hold the ultimate solution to the GOP’s electoral challenges concerning abortion. Some influential GOP donors, apprehensive about Donald Trump’s continued dominance within the party, had been encouraging Youngkin to enter the 2024 presidential race. While Youngkin had primarily focused on winning Virginia’s legislative elections, the electorate’s verdict may have implications for his potential presidential bid.

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