Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a campaign event sponsored by conservative group Turning Point Action, in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. October 24, 2024. REUTERS/Ronda Churchill
Trump and Harris Vie for Key Voting Blocs Ahead of November Election
Shift in Hispanic Male Support Toward Trump
Republican candidate Donald Trump has significantly narrowed the gap in support among Hispanic men, a demographic that has historically leaned Democratic. According to Reuters/Ipsos polling through October 21, Trump now trails Vice President Kamala Harris by only two percentage points among Hispanic men, with support at 44% to Harris’ 46%. This marks a notable shift from the 2020 election when Trump trailed then-candidate Joe Biden by 19 points among Hispanic men.
Trump’s increasing support among Hispanic men reflects broader trends in which he has managed to draw more Hispanic and Black voters, particularly men, while Harris has gained support from white women, a group that favored Trump by 12 points over Biden in late 2020. In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Harris leads Trump overall by a slim margin of 46% to 43%.
Changing Voter Coalitions and Strategic Focus
The reshaping of each candidate’s coalition shows Trump strengthening his appeal to Hispanic and Black men while Harris gains support among white women. Harris’ slight lead among white women has reduced the Republicans’ traditional advantage with this group, who, as of recent polls, now lean Republican by only three points, 46% to 43%.
Among voters like Robert Alomia, a Hispanic security worker from New Jersey, Trump’s appeal lies in his business background and leadership qualities. Alomia stated that he resonates with Trump’s firm stance on immigration, emphasizing the importance of strong leadership. Trump has argued that current immigration policies leave borders too open, while Harris attributes immigration policy issues to Trump’s opposition to bipartisan border security measures in Congress.
Hispanic Voter Trends
Hispanic voters represent a rapidly growing segment of the U.S. electorate and have leaned Democratic in presidential elections since the 1970s. However, Trump has made substantial inroads with this demographic. Reuters/Ipsos data shows Trump with 37% of Hispanic voter support, up from 30% at this point in 2020, while Harris holds 51%, slightly lower than Biden’s 54% in 2020. In the 2020 election, Trump won 38% of the Hispanic vote, marking the largest Republican share since President George W. Bush’s 44% in 2004.
Increased Support Among Black Men
Trump has also seen modest gains among Black men, another group that has traditionally favored Democrats. Recent polling shows 18% of Black men and 8% of Black women supporting Trump, compared to 14% and 4%, respectively, in 2020. Exit polls indicated that around 8% of Black voters chose Trump in 2020, a figure that has since increased to 12% in recent polling.
According to Republican strategist Kristin Davison, Trump has connected with Black voters by addressing economic and social issues, such as employment and family values, that resonate within the community. Kedrick Benford, a Black small business owner in Houston, remarked that he perceives Trump as a leader with experience, despite criticisms of his past handling of racial issues.
Harris’ Strategy with White Women Voters
Harris has maintained her close standing in the race by increasing her support among white women, who comprised around 40% of voters in 2020. Though support among white men has shown little change for either candidate, Harris’ gains with white women have narrowed Trump’s overall lead with white voters to nine points, down from a 14-point lead over Biden in 2020.
Democratic strategist Meghan Hays attributes Harris’ boost with women to the party’s strong focus on reproductive rights following the 2022 Supreme Court ruling that ended nationwide abortion rights. Hays noted that Harris’ image among women voters stands in contrast to Trump, influencing some women to support Harris to counter Trump’s appeal among Black and Hispanic men.
Shifts in Republican Support Among Former Trump Voters
Some former Trump voters, including white women like Donna Berg from Illinois, have expressed disillusionment with Trump and the current direction of the Republican Party. Berg, who voted for Trump in 2016 and reluctantly again in 2020, decided against supporting him following the January 6 Capitol attack. “After Jan. 6, it was all over,” Berg said, adding that she now views the party as more extreme under Trump’s leadership and plans to vote for Harris.
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