As the early voting for the November 2024 election progresses, both Democrats and Republicans are finding reasons for optimism in key battleground states. While Democrats are encouraged by strong early voting returns in Michigan, Republicans are seeing promising signs in Nevada. However, early voting data, which tends to skew toward more engaged and partisan voters, remains an imperfect indicator of the final election outcome.
Early Voting: Both Parties Find Hope in Key States
With over 41 million Americans already having cast their ballots for the upcoming Nov. 5 election, early voting data is grabbing the attention of political analysts from both major parties. While early voters tend to be older and more partisan than the broader electorate, these numbers are still used by campaigns to target key groups in the final days of the election season.
Democrats Eye Positive Signs in Michigan
One state where Democrats are showing enthusiasm is Michigan. More than 145,000 voters cast ballots on Saturday, the first day of in-person early voting. Despite changes in voting laws that make comparisons to previous elections difficult, the early turnout is generating excitement within the Democratic Party. Particularly notable is the return of absentee ballots in Detroit, a stronghold for the Democrats. According to a POLITICO analysis, over 60% of requested absentee ballots have already been returned statewide, with Detroit seeing a return rate of nearly two-thirds.
Of particular interest to Democratic strategists is the high return rate among older Black voters, a critical demographic for the party. Modeling data suggests that 77% of absentee ballots from this group have already been returned. This is viewed as a sign of strong Democratic support, especially in light of Michigan’s new early voting rules.
Republicans Find Early Success in Nevada
In contrast, Republicans are feeling optimistic about Nevada. Early voting data shows a considerable advantage for the GOP, particularly in rural areas and among in-person early voters. According to state data, nearly twice as many Republicans have voted early in person compared to Democrats, a strong sign of GOP enthusiasm.
This momentum has inspired the Senate Leadership Fund, linked to Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, to invest $6 million in the state’s Senate race. Republican Senate nominee Sam Brown is now viewed as having a stronger chance to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen, though public polls had previously shown Rosen with an advantage.
Republicans’ early lead in Nevada is largely driven by strong in-person voting returns from GOP voters in key counties, including Clark County, which is home to a majority of Nevada’s electorate. While Democrats have returned more absentee ballots than Republicans, their margin is much smaller compared to Republicans’ advantage in in-person voting.
Independent Voters Could Tip the Balance
One critical unknown remains: independent voters, who are casting ballots at lower rates so far. This group tends to be younger and more diverse, which could favor Democrats, especially in key swing states like Nevada. Both parties will need to continue their efforts to engage these voters in the final days before Election Day.
Past Elections Offer Perspective
While Republicans are encouraged by their early vote numbers in Nevada, they remember 2022, when early GOP confidence did not translate into a Senate victory despite winning the governor’s office. With many votes yet to be cast, both parties are watching the data carefully, understanding that the early vote may not fully reflect the final result.
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