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New AARP Poll: Biden Trails Trump in Wisconsin

President Joe Biden’s numbers in the must-win state are further cause for concern after his debate performance raised worries over his age. | Gerald Herbert/AP

A recent AARP post-debate poll reveals President Joe Biden is trailing Donald Trump by 6 percentage points in the crucial battleground state of Wisconsin. The poll, released on Tuesday, shows Trump leading Biden 44 percent to 38 percent.

Key Findings

  • Older Voters’ Preferences:
  • Voters aged 50 and older: Favor Trump over Biden, 48 percent to 41 percent.
  • Voters aged 50 to 64: Trump leads by 15 percentage points.
  • Voters aged 65 and older: Biden and Trump are tied.
  • Head-to-Head Comparison:
  • Excluding independent and third-party candidates: Trump leads Biden 50 percent to 45 percent.

Context and Democratic Concerns

Biden’s debate performance has intensified concerns about his age and fitness to serve, with several congressional Democrats publicly and privately expressing doubts about his candidacy. The AARP poll exacerbates these worries, showing Biden’s weak position in a state he must win to secure re-election.

Despite these challenges, Biden defended his candidacy at a rally in Madison, asserting that his age is not an obstacle to achieving his policy goals, including restoring Roe v. Wade, banning assault weapons, and protecting Social Security and Medicare.

Biden Campaign Response

A Biden campaign spokesperson emphasized the president’s strong presence in Wisconsin and cited other polls showing a close race between Biden and Trump in the state. The campaign remains focused on its ground game and rallying support ahead of the election.

Republican National Convention and Trump’s Focus on Wisconsin

The poll comes just a week before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Although Trump reportedly criticized Milwaukee in private, he has prioritized refining his image in Wisconsin, recognizing its importance as a swing state.

Senate Race in Wisconsin

The poll also sheds light on the Senate race in Wisconsin:

  • Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D): Leads Republican Eric Hovde 50 percent to 45 percent.
  • Voters aged 50 and older: Hovde leads Baldwin by 3 percentage points.

Poll Details

The poll was conducted from June 28 to July 2, surveying 1,052 likely voters. This included a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters and an oversample of 452 likely voters aged 50 and older, to achieve a total sample of 800 older voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for the statewide sample and 3.5 percentage points for older voters.

Conclusion

The AARP poll highlights the precarious position Biden faces in Wisconsin, a state crucial to his re-election bid. With Trump leading among older voters and the race tightening, Biden’s campaign must address voter concerns and reinforce its efforts in key battleground states to secure victory in the 2024 election.

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