A recent survey conducted by the Democratic polling firm Bendixen & Amandi indicates that President Joe Biden remains competitive against Donald Trump, though he faces increased risk of losing the election. This poll reveals Biden trailing Trump by a narrow margin, 42 percent to 43 percent.
Voter Concerns Post-Debate
The survey, taken after Biden’s challenging debate performance, shows significant concerns among likely voters regarding Biden’s ability to serve another term:
- Only 29 percent believe Biden has the mental and physical capacity for a second term, while 61 percent do not.
- 33 percent think he should remain the Democratic nominee, compared to 52 percent who believe he should not.
- Just half of Democrats polled feel Biden should be the nominee or is fit to serve another term.
Comparative Strengths of Other Democrats
- Vice President Kamala Harris: Leading Trump 42 percent to 41 percent.
- Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: Edges out Harris and leads Trump 43 percent to 41 percent.
- Clinton-Harris Ticket: Polls strongest among potential Democratic tickets, beating Trump 43 percent to 40 percent.
Pollster Insights
Fernand Amandi, the veteran pollster who conducted the survey, highlighted the growing concern among Democrats about Biden’s age and fitness for office. He noted the surprising strength of Hillary Clinton, suggesting a potential openness to her comeback among voters. Amandi emphasized the importance of these small but significant differences in a potentially tight race.
Other Leading Democrats
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom: Trails Trump 37 percent to 40 percent.
- Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer: Also behind Trump, 36 percent to 40 percent.
- Harris-Shapiro Ticket: A combination of Harris and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro slightly bests Trump, 42 percent to 40 percent.
- Harris-Whitmer Ticket: Trails Trump 39 percent to 41 percent.
Methodology
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely November voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, conducted by phone and email between July 2 and July 6.
Implications for Biden’s Campaign
Biden has faced growing pressure from Democratic officials, donors, and activists to reconsider his candidacy following his debate performance. However, he remains committed to running and has dismissed calls for a cognitive examination.
The poll included a question about whether voters would support Biden even if he were cognitively diminished due to age, with 44 percent saying they would, compared to 48 percent who would not. This reflects a substantial willingness among some voters to support Biden to prevent a Trump victory.
Amandi noted that the debate impacted both candidates, but concerns about Trump’s potential presidency continue to bolster Biden’s support among those wary of Trump’s return to office.
Conclusion
The poll underscores the precarious position of Biden’s candidacy while highlighting the potential for a strong Democratic ticket led by either Harris or Clinton. As the election approaches, the Democratic Party faces crucial decisions about its leadership and strategy to counter Trump’s challenge.
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