Global Eyes on Trump’s AUKUS Policy
LONDON — President-elect Donald Trump has yet to publicly address his stance on the AUKUS trilateral submarine program, a $369 billion deal involving the U.S., U.K., and Australia. This uncertainty has prompted officials in London and Canberra to scrutinize Trump’s national security appointments and past policies for clues about the pact’s future.
The Biden-era agreement, designed to bolster Indo-Pacific security against China’s growing influence, hinges on technology-sharing and building nuclear-powered submarines. It also includes the sale of three to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia by the 2030s, a provision that may challenge Trump’s “America First” ideology.
Concerns Over U.S. Defense Capacity
Key to the AUKUS pact is the U.S.’s commitment to divert advanced submarines from its own naval fleet to Australia. However, with America grappling with a defense industrial capacity crunch, some worry Trump may reconsider the agreement.
Alexander Gray, a former National Security Council official under Trump, emphasized this concern:
“We’re not on track to meet minimum requirements for our own needs. If you take America First literally, commitments to allies could be deprioritized.”
Trump’s Team Offers Hope for AUKUS
Despite these concerns, Trump’s selection of China hawks like Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Representative Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser offers optimism. Both are strong proponents of countering Chinese influence and supported AUKUS legislation in Congress.
Waltz recently co-authored an essay praising AUKUS, calling it one of Biden’s few positive steps in addressing the China challenge. His endorsement, coupled with bipartisan support for the deal, suggests Trump’s administration might sustain the pact, albeit with adjustments.
Strategic Framing Could Secure Trump’s Approval
Experts argue that reframing AUKUS in terms of American self-interest could persuade Trump to fully back the deal. Sophia Gaston, a foreign policy expert, suggests:
“Britain and Australia must demonstrate how AUKUS delivers short-term wins for America’s defense and economy.”
The Future of Pillar II
Beyond submarines, AUKUS includes a lesser-known Pillar II initiative focused on cutting-edge technologies like AI and hypersonics. While progress has been slow, some believe Trump may redirect funds from the submarine program to accelerate Pillar II projects, which promise faster returns.
Awaiting Trump’s Verdict
As Trump prepares to take office, defense leaders worldwide eagerly anticipate his stance on AUKUS. With his administration taking shape, it remains to be seen whether his America First agenda will align with the pact’s goals or lead to significant renegotiations.
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