Former President Donald Trump is gaining momentum in three critical Sun Belt states, pulling slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in recent polling, according to a New York Times/Siena College survey published Monday. The poll, conducted between September 17-21, shows Trump leading Harris by narrow margins in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, key states that could decide the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump Takes Narrow Leads in Arizona and Georgia
In Arizona, Trump holds a 5-point lead over Harris, with 50% of likely voters supporting Trump and 45% backing Harris. This marks a shift from August when Harris held a slight lead. Similarly, in Georgia, Trump is ahead by 4 points, leading Harris 48% to 44%. Both leads are within the margins of sampling error, but they represent significant gains for the former president.
North Carolina a Tight Race
In North Carolina, the race remains tight, with Trump polling at 49% compared to Harris’s 47%. This state has become a hotly contested battleground, and the slight edge for Trump highlights how competitive the 2024 race is shaping up to be in the region.
Momentum Shifts from August Polling
The latest polling results flip the script from August when Harris was slightly ahead in Arizona and North Carolina. Trump has managed to turn those numbers around in recent weeks, while maintaining his lead in Georgia. This shift could be a reflection of voter sentiment in the lead-up to the general election, with many voters still undecided.
Harris’s polling numbers, however, are stronger than President Joe Biden’s from earlier this year. In May, Trump held a more substantial lead over Biden, with an 8-point advantage in Georgia and a 9-point lead in Arizona. Harris has managed to close that gap, showing more resilience in these critical battleground states.
Down-Ballot Races See Mixed Results for Republicans
Despite Trump’s slight edge, Republican candidates down the ballot are not seeing the same momentum. In the Arizona Senate race, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 6 points, a notable lead in a state that has become more competitive in recent election cycles. Similarly, in the North Carolina gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson by 10 points, with 47% support compared to Robinson’s 37%. This poll was conducted before recent controversies surrounding Robinson, including reports of inappropriate online behavior, which he has denied.
Polling Details and Margins of Error
The New York Times/Siena College polls surveyed 713 voters in Arizona, 682 voters in Georgia, and 682 voters in North Carolina. The margin of error for the Arizona poll is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, 4.6 points in Georgia, and 4.2 points in North Carolina, making the races close enough to still be highly competitive.
Conclusion
While Trump’s slight lead in these key Sun Belt states could indicate momentum for his campaign, the results remain within the margins of error, suggesting that the race is far from decided. As the general election nears, both Trump and Harris will need to focus on these battlegrounds to sway undecided voters and solidify their paths to victory.
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