In one of his final acts on the global stage, President Joe Biden is set to make a significant appearance at the United Nations General Assembly this week. As Biden aims to secure his legacy and bolster Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, a major foreign policy objective may be slipping from his grasp: achieving a cease-fire deal in Gaza. With the rising conflict between Israel and Hezbollah on Lebanon’s borders, the already delicate negotiations face new challenges.
Rising Tensions in the Middle East
Biden’s top foreign policy goal is now focused on securing a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war. But the ongoing violence, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah, threatens to derail those efforts. Last week, clashes between the two sides intensified after an attack in Lebanon left over 20 people dead and thousands injured. These events have not only increased fears of a regional war but also further complicated the cease-fire talks.
According to three U.S. administration officials, Biden’s team has been working tirelessly to negotiate a cease-fire, with support from senior aides including CIA Director William Burns, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. Despite their efforts, Biden’s priority for a peace deal faces significant obstacles, as neither Hamas nor Israeli leadership appears willing to make the necessary compromises.
Political and International Ramifications
As Biden prepares for his Tuesday speech at the U.N., he will highlight his achievements in foreign policy over the last three years. However, the escalating conflict in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing scrutiny of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan may overshadow these accomplishments. Biden has been credited with repairing alliances and rallying global support against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the current situation in Gaza poses a direct challenge to his leadership.
Cease-Fire Deal Slips Out of Reach
Negotiations for a cease-fire had already stalled, but with the latest attacks, the situation has become more precarious. Israel’s demand to keep soldiers along the Philadelphi Corridor — a demilitarized zone along the Egyptian border — has been a sticking point. Hamas refuses to accept Israeli presence in the area, and further disagreements persist over the number of Palestinian prisoners to be exchanged for hostages. Despite Biden’s dedication to preventing a wider conflict and securing peace, there is growing skepticism that a deal can be reached anytime soon.
Biden’s Legacy and Harris’s Campaign
The outcome of these negotiations could have a profound impact on Biden’s legacy and Harris’s political future. For Harris, who has supported Biden’s foreign policy, including Israel’s right to defend itself, the Middle East crisis presents a political dilemma. Many progressive and younger voters in the Democratic base are critical of the administration’s handling of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and Harris’s team is concerned that this could depress turnout in key battleground states like Michigan.
With Biden no longer seeking reelection, he is more focused on international affairs in the final months of his presidency. While foreign policy generally ranks low on voter concerns, its implications for Harris’s campaign could be significant. The Gaza cease-fire has become a crucial element in both Biden’s legacy and Harris’s chances of success in 2024.
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