HomeElections

Trump likely to challenge any election loss. His options have narrowed

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump reacts during a campaign event at the Cobb Energy Performing Arts Centre in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S. October 15, 2024. REUTERS/Dustin Chambers/File Photo

Trump’s Plan to Challenge 2024 Election Results If He Loses

Trump’s Intent to Contest the Election Outcome

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made it clear that if he does not win the upcoming November 5, 2024, election, he will once again claim fraud and refuse to accept the results. At a rally in Michigan in September, Trump reiterated the stance he took after losing the 2020 election to President Joe Biden. “If I lose — I’ll tell you what, it’s possible. Because they cheat. That’s the only way we’re gonna lose, because they cheat,” Trump declared.

A refusal by Trump to accept the victory of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris could lead to significant political instability in the United States, which remains deeply polarized. His refusal to concede the 2020 election was marked by a series of unsuccessful lawsuits and attempts to pressure state officials to alter the vote count. This culminated in the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by his supporters.

New Challenges for Trump in 2024

Unlike in 2020, Trump no longer holds the presidential office, which may limit his ability to influence the outcome. Additionally, new state and federal laws have been implemented to make it more difficult to interfere with the election results. Despite these changes, Trump and his allies have been preparing for months to challenge a potential loss on November 5, possibly contesting Kamala Harris’s victory in the courts or raising doubts about the legitimacy of her win among his supporters.

Potential for Election Disputes

Both Republican and Democratic analysts anticipate that vote counting may continue for several days after the election, particularly due to the large volume of mail-in ballots. If Trump appears to be losing, this delay could provide him with an opportunity to claim fraud and undermine confidence in the electoral process. Trump has also suggested the possibility of prosecuting election workers for “unscrupulous behavior,” although he would need to win the election to implement such threats.

Trump’s campaign spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, reinforced his call for a “free and fair election,” but did not address specific concerns about his claims of potential fraud. The Harris campaign has not yet responded to these statements.

Preemptive Legal Challenges

Republicans have already filed over 100 lawsuits in key battleground states, laying the groundwork for post-election disputes. These legal challenges include unfounded claims that large numbers of non-citizens will vote. Both political parties are also preparing to deploy thousands of poll watchers to monitor the voting process and ensure that all laws are followed. Some voting rights advocates, however, have expressed concerns that Republican poll watchers could disrupt the process, though the party insists that its volunteers are trained to comply with the law.

As was the case in 2020, Trump’s allies may attempt to delay the certification of election results in key states, potentially creating further legal and political complications. Although previous efforts to do so failed, and election laws in battleground states are generally clear on limiting the power of local officials to invalidate ballots, there are concerns about how these disputes will play out in court.

Legal Safeguards and Certification Deadlines

Election law requires that all states submit certified results before the Electoral College meets in December to formally cast their votes for the next president. In January, Congress will then certify the final results. However, court challenges or certification delays inspired by Trump could cause a state to miss its filing deadline, which could be used as a basis for objections in Congress.

The U.S. Congress passed a reform law following the 2020 election to make it more difficult for candidates to challenge certification results. The law clarifies that the vice president, who will be Kamala Harris if she wins, has no authority to reject a state’s certified electoral results, a move Trump unsuccessfully urged Mike Pence to take in 2020. Additionally, any objection to a state’s electoral count must be supported by one-fifth of each house of Congress and requires a majority vote in both chambers to be upheld.

Risks of Civil Unrest

Trump’s refusal to accept the election outcome could lead to significant civil unrest, similar to the January 6 attack. Experts monitoring right-wing militant groups have expressed concerns about the potential for violence, not only in Washington, D.C., but also in state capitals, particularly in battleground states. However, they suggest that threats to election workers may be a greater concern than large-scale violent protests. The criminal convictions of many involved in the January 6 insurrection may act as a deterrent for others who might contemplate similar actions.

Subscribe to our newsletter

COMMENTS