Former U.S. President Donald Trump in New York City, U.S. May 30, 2024 and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington, U.S., July 22, 2024 in a combination of file photos. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz, Nathan Howard/File Photo
Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump by 3 Points in Tight Presidential Race, Poll Shows
Overview of Poll Results
In the lead-up to the November 5, 2024, U.S. presidential election, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow 3-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. Harris leads Trump 45% to 42% among registered voters, with the race remaining close and largely unchanged from the previous week’s poll.
The poll also suggests that voter enthusiasm, particularly among Democrats, may be higher than in the 2020 election, when Joe Biden defeated Trump. Approximately 78% of registered voters—86% of Democrats and 81% of Republicans—said they were “completely certain” to vote in this year’s election, a notable increase from the 74% who expressed the same level of certainty in October 2020.
Harris Gains Ground on Key Issues, but Economy Remains Trump’s Strength
Kamala Harris entered the race in July following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid after a poor debate performance against Trump in June. Although Trump initially appeared to be the frontrunner, driven by his perceived strength on economic issues, Harris has gained traction among voters on healthcare policy and managing political extremism.
According to the poll, Harris leads Trump by 5 percentage points (43% to 38%) when voters were asked who was better suited to handle political extremism and threats to democracy. Additionally, she holds a substantial 14-point lead on healthcare policy. These figures remain largely consistent with a similar Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in September.
However, the U.S. economy remains a top issue for voters, with 26% of respondents identifying it as the nation’s biggest concern. Trump leads Harris by 5 points on economic issues, with 45% of voters viewing him as the better candidate to handle the economy, unemployment, and jobs. This is an increase from the 2-point advantage he held in September.
Battleground States and Voter Turnout Key to Election Outcome
Despite national polling trends, the results in key battleground states will likely determine the election outcome due to the Electoral College system. Polls show that Harris and Trump are locked in close competition in these pivotal states, with many results within the margin of error. This emphasizes the importance of voter turnout, which both campaigns are heavily focused on.
Historically, voter turnout was high in the 2020 election, with two-thirds of U.S. adults casting ballots, the highest turnout in more than a century. This year, enthusiasm remains strong, as seen in the increased certainty of voter participation. Among likely voters, Harris leads Trump 47% to 44%, further illustrating the tight nature of the race.
Voter Sentiment Toward Candidates
While voters are eager to cast their ballots, neither candidate enjoys broad popularity among the electorate. Only 46% of respondents in the poll held a favorable opinion of Harris, while 42% said the same of Trump. Both candidates are therefore working to consolidate support within their bases while appealing to independent and undecided voters.
Polling Methodology
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, surveying 938 U.S. adults nationwide, including 807 registered voters. Of those, 769 were considered most likely to vote in the upcoming election. The poll has a margin of error of approximately 4 percentage points, meaning the race remains highly competitive as both campaigns prepare for the final stretch before Election Day.
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