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The US to Speed Taiwan Arms, via Ukraine Budget?

+Poll results: Public’s Take on US Aide to Ukraine, Bipartisan Divide Grows Deeper on Consensus

The White House’s recent plan request to accelerate arms transfers to Taiwan in response to mounting tensions with China from Congress garners attention from the nation and  international observers alike. In a strategic move, the White House is set to include funding for Taiwan’s military needs in a supplementary budget request primarily aimed at aiding Ukraine if passed by Congress. This approach is designed to expedite the provision of crucial weaponry to Taiwan as it faces an increasingly assertive China.

Taiwan faces rising threat from Mainland China

Under this plan, the Office of Management and Budget will incorporate funding for Taiwan within the supplementary request, utilizing a framework known as “foreign military financing.” Notably, if approved by Congress, this would mark the first instance of Taiwan receiving arms through this funding mechanism. The urgency of this decision is underscored by its parallel to the “presidential drawdown authority” (PDA), a tool previously employed to supply arms to Ukraine.

Taiwan has long awaited the delivery of approximately $23 billion worth of approved weapon sales, a collection that includes surveillance drones and harpoon missiles. Some of these sales have been pending for over five years, prompting concerns and criticisms about the sluggish pace of weapons transfers. The White House’s move seeks to address these delays and enhance Taiwan’s security posture.

The decision to intertwine support for Taiwan within the Ukraine budget seems to be a strategic play aimed at garnering bipartisan backing. Taiwan enjoys robust support from both sides of the aisle in Congress. By coupling Taiwan’s assistance with Ukraine’s, the administration aims to sway lawmakers who might harbor reservations about aiding Ukraine. More about nation’s reservations on it later in the article…

China’s response to this development has been sharp and unsurprising. The Chinese embassy in Washington swiftly voiced its opposition to US military ties and arms provision to Taiwan, reiterating Beijing’s sovereignty claims over the island nation. The embassy called on the US to refrain from actions that could destabilize the already sensitive situation in the Taiwan Strait.

The approach underscores the gravity of the situation in the Asia-Pacific and the United States’ commitment to bolstering its allies’ defenses. By packaging support for Taiwan alongside aid for Ukraine, the White House is sending a clear message about its strategic priorities in terms of external crises.

On another additional note on US aiding to Ukraine, according to a poll conducted by SSRS. Asking the question: Should US provide more aid to Ukraine, and/or has it done enough?

Ukrainian President Zelensky is greeted by members of the U.S. Congress as he arrives to deliver a joint address at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Dec. 21, 2022. Public opinion in US about aids to Ukrain seems to have made a shift since then, poll shows. MANDEL NGAN/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Public Divided on Additional US Funding for Ukraine

A recent poll conducted by SSRS reveals a divided American public stance on Congress authorizing extra funding to support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. The survey also highlights differing opinions on whether the United States has adequately assisted Ukraine thus far.

The poll indicates that 55% of respondents oppose Congress granting additional funding for Ukraine, while 45% support such funding. Similarly, 51% believe that the US has provided sufficient help to Ukraine, while 48% argue for increased assistance. Notably, these figures mark a shift from an earlier poll conducted in the initial days of the Russian invasion in February 2022, where 62% felt that the US should have been more involved.

Partisan lines have become more pronounced since the earlier poll, with Democrats and Republicans now holding divergent views on the US role in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent appearance at the Navy Day parade in Saint Petersburg serves as a backdrop to this ongoing debate. A majority of those advocating for increased US support to Ukraine (68%) also endorse additional funding, along with 23% of respondents who believe the US has done enough.

The survey also gauged opinions on specific forms of assistance. Intelligence gathering received broad support (63%), followed by military training (53%), and providing weapons (43%). However, only a minority (17%) back the involvement of US military forces in combat operations.

Those favoring increased support for Ukraine mostly endorse intelligence gathering (75%), military training (68%), and providing weapons (60%). Conversely, among respondents satisfied with the current US involvement, only intelligence gathering garnered majority support (52%).

While concerns persist about Russia’s impact on US national security (56%), this worry has diminished since February 2022 (72%). A more substantial shared concern is the potential prolonged continuation of the war, with nearly 80% expressing worry. This apprehension cuts across party lines, as 82% of Democrats, 75% of independents, and 73% of Republicans share this sentiment.

A prevailing fear is that the conflict might have far-reaching consequences. About two-thirds of respondents worry that the war could lead to increased threats to democracy elsewhere (65%), Russian attacks in other regions (64%), or even a broader conflict in Europe (59%).

Divergence is stark between Democrats and Republicans regarding the extent of US assistance to Ukraine. Republicans largely oppose new funding (71%) and assert that the US has done enough (59%). In contrast, a majority of Democrats call for additional funding (62%) and greater US involvement (61%).

Within each party, ideological divisions further shape opinions. Liberal Democrats notably champion additional funding (74%), whereas 51% of moderate or conservative Democrats support it. Among Republicans, the majority of conservatives (76%) reject new funding, compared to 61% of moderate or liberal Republicans.

Independents lean towards the notion that the US has already done enough for Ukraine (56%) and oppose extra funding (55%).

The survey also inquired about specific types of assistance. Intelligence gathering received broad support across parties (70% of Democrats, 63% of independents, and 56% of Republicans). Military training gained backing from almost two-thirds of Democrats (64%), while support dropped to around half for independents and Republicans (48% each). Providing weapons garnered support from 61% of Democrats but only 39% of independents and 30% of Republicans. A mere fraction (less than 20%) of respondents from all parties endorsed involving US military forces in combat operations.

Public sentiment toward President Joe Biden’s handling of the situation in Ukraine stands at 45% approval. Similarly, 43% approve of his management of US-Russia relations. Interestingly, nearly 1 in 5 Republicans (19%) approve of Biden’s handling of the Ukraine situation, a notable increase from his overall Republican approval rating of 7%.

-Conducted by SSRS from July 1 to 31, the poll sampled 1,279 adults through a mix of mail, online, and telephone surveys. The overall margin of sampling error is approximately 3.7 percentage points, with larger margins for subgroups.-

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