The Fall of Assad: New Leadership in Syria and Its Global Implications

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has drastically reshaped Middle Eastern dynamics. While the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani raises concerns, the U.S. faces a pivotal decision about engaging with this new Sunni-led government, balancing regional stability against counter-terrorism priorities.

Fighters set alight a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in front of a building that was seized by jihadists in the area of Zarbah on Nov. 29. On Dec. 8, rebels took control of Damascus, overthrowing Assad’s government. Assad, whose family had ruled since the 1970s, fled to Russia. | Photo by Aaref Watad/AFP via Getty Images

The Fall of Assad’s Regime

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted on December 8, following rebel forces’ capture of Damascus. Assad’s reliance on Iran and Russia, economic collapse, and weakened military morale were key contributors. The intervention by Israel, including actions against Hezbollah, further destabilized Assad’s position, forcing him to flee to Russia.

2. New Leadership in Syria

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now heads Syria. Formerly associated with al-Qaeda, Jolani has since publicly distanced himself from extremism. He advocates rebuilding Syria, engaging with foreign powers, and opposing Iran and Hezbollah. However, skepticism remains due to HTS’s history of authoritarian governance and human rights abuses.

3. U.S. Role in Syrian Oil and Gas

The U.S. currently controls significant Syrian oil and gas resources in the northeast, initially to prevent ISIS and adversaries like Russia and Iran from exploiting them. With Assad gone and Jolani signaling cooperation, Washington faces pressure to relinquish these resources, vital for Syria’s reconstruction.

4. Geopolitical Implications

Assad’s downfall is a blow to Iran and Hezbollah, cutting off key supply routes and diminishing their regional influence. For Russia, already strained by the Ukraine war, this represents another significant foreign policy setback. Conversely, the U.S. now sees an opportunity to establish a Sunni-led government in Damascus, potentially aligning with its long-term regional objectives.

5. Challenges and Uncertainties

Despite Jolani’s moderate rhetoric, his inclusion on the U.S. terrorist list complicates international relations. The U.S. must assess HTS’s intentions while balancing its own interests in counter-terrorism, regional stability, and supporting democratic transitions.

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