As the calendar flips to September on Capitol Hill, the political drama has gone from crazy to downright chaotic. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s announcement of an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden has added fresh gravity to an already contentious atmosphere. With a government shutdown looming just 18 days away and a growing faction of conservative hard-liners threatening McCarthy’s leadership, the political landscape is more tumultuous than ever, not to mention the implications for the 2024 elections.
McCarthy’s hope that the impeachment inquiry would quell the uncertainty surrounding these clashes has backfired. Instead, it has raised numerous new questions about what lies ahead. Here, we attempt to answer some of these questions, though many remain shrouded in uncertainty.
What are Republicans trying to prove?
The primary goal for Republicans is to establish that President Biden was involved in corrupt activities. Central to this probe, as outlined in McCarthy’s public statement and a letter to his fellow party members, are unverified allegations of bribery. While it’s well-documented that Biden’s son, Hunter, received significant payments from foreign companies during his father’s vice presidency, there is no concrete evidence to suggest that President Biden personally benefited from these transactions or took official actions to favor those who paid his family.
While proving this link is the top priority of the inquiry, it may not be the only one. Republicans could explore other allegations against Biden, such as his alleged “weaponization” of the Justice Department against former President Donald Trump.
What’s the timeline?
The timeline for this impeachment inquiry remains unclear. In 2019, when Democrats targeted Trump for impeachment, they initiated their probe around the same time of the year and concluded it with an impeachment vote shortly before Christmas. However, it is uncertain whether Republicans will follow a similar timeline. Newt Gingrich, who presided over the impeachment of President Bill Clinton, recently cautioned against rushing the process, advising that it should proceed cautiously.
Will there be public hearings?
Yes, eventually. While the initial phases of the inquiry will involve private interviews with key witnesses, it’s expected that Republicans will eventually hold public hearings to make their case to the American people.
Will Republicans vote to formalize the inquiry?
That is indeed the plan. McCarthy criticized Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2019 for not authorizing a formal House vote to initiate Trump’s impeachment inquiry. Now, McCarthy is following Pelosi’s precedent, arguing that it’s essential to hold such a vote. This political move allows McCarthy to protect his swing district members from taking a public position on impeachment.
How will the White House respond?
The Biden White House must tread carefully. Just as McCarthy adopted Pelosi’s playbook, the White House could borrow a page from Trump’s book. In 2019, the Justice Department determined that because the House hadn’t held a formal vote to authorize the probe, Trump and his aides were not obligated to comply with Democrats’ impeachment subpoenas. While Biden may be tempted to take a similar stance, he also faces tactical concerns. Some moderate Democrats, who are skeptical of impeachment, have suggested that a lack of White House cooperation on document and testimony requests could sway their opinions.
Will impeachment appease McCarthy’s conservative critics?
It doesn’t appear so. McCarthy’s inner circle initially saw the impeachment inquiry as a way to placate the right if the spending standoff took a negative turn. However, that strategy seems to have fallen short of its intended effect. Immediately after McCarthy announced the inquiry, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) called for McCarthy’s potential removal, considering the inquiry as merely a “baby step.” Gaetz’s sentiments are shared by other conservatives who believe the inquiry won’t satisfy their demands for spending cuts and stronger border security.
Is there any scenario where this doesn’t end in Biden’s impeachment?
Don’t bet on it. While McCarthy may be privately reassuring centrist members that initiating an inquiry doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll have to vote for Biden’s impeachment in the future, history and political realities suggest otherwise. Opening an inquiry without following through with an impeachment vote could be politically advantageous for Biden, as it would essentially imply that the GOP found no wrongdoing on his part. McCarthy may use this argument to pressure moderates who currently don’t see sufficient evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors to support impeachment later on. And, given the historical track record, centrist members might ultimately fall in line rather than face potential primary challenges and the ire of their party’s base.
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