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Sen. Joe Manchin considers independent 2024 run, warns party system could be nation’s ‘downfall’

West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin speaks with reporters outside the newly renovated Amtrak train station in Charleston, W.Va. on Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023 (AP Photo/Leah Willingham)

In the case of Senator Joe Manchin from the state of West Virginia, we find a representative of the American political landscape, navigating the tumultuous waters of partisan politics with calculated ambiguity. Manchin, a moderate Democrat, has astutely utilized the power of his swing vote in a closely divided chamber, benefiting from the intrigue that surrounds his political future.

During his recent sojourn in West Virginia’s capital, this seasoned 76-year-old politician voiced his growing discontent with the entrenched polarization within the United States’ two-party system. “I’m grappling with a profound challenge,” he mused during a visit to a Charleston metal stamping plant. “The two-party system, unless it evolves, could be the harbinger of our nation’s downfall.”

Manchin’s itinerary included a visit to a revitalized metal plant, a testament to his tenure as governor, and an Amtrak station, transformed with infrastructure funding secured through his endeavors. While teasing the prospect of his 2024 decision, he remained enigmatic about his Democratic identity, which he has held since his initial foray into West Virginia’s House of Delegates in 1982.

His stance resonates with his belief that one should focus on the individual rather than party labels. “Don’t concern yourself with the ‘D’ or the ‘R’,” he implored, drawing on his extensive experience as a Democratic secretary of state and governor of West Virginia. “There can be good and bad representatives on both sides; I favor the independent identity.”

Manchin, a congressional member since 2010, ascended to prominence in the realm of West Virginia politics, where coal and the Democratic Party once held sway. His adept navigation allowed him to secure reelection in 2018, a remarkable feat in a state known for its staunch support of former President Donald Trump. Yet, the landscape has shifted, with the immensely popular Republican Governor Jim Justice now entering the Senate race.

Progressive Democrats, however, have grown weary of Manchin’s equivocal positioning. While they relied on his pivotal vote in the 51-49 Senate, his recurrent criticisms of fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden, fueled concerns of a potential party switch, which could jeopardize their fragile grip on power.

A defining moment emerged in December 2021 when Manchin, after extensive negotiations with the White House, withdrew his support for a $2 trillion social and environmental bill, dealing a severe blow to President Biden’s inaugural domestic initiative. However, in an unexpected turn of events, Manchin, in collaboration with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, crafted a compromise package focusing on healthcare and climate change, ultimately passed into law.

As Chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Manchin leveraged his influence to advocate for a range of West Virginia initiatives, from supporting coal miners afflicted with black lung to championing the completion of the contentious Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline. If he decides to enter any political race, he will hinge on pragmatic investments resonating with the electorate.

Two Republicans, Governor Jim Justice and Representative Alex Mooney, have already declared their intent to vie for Manchin’s Senate seat. Intriguingly, Manchin initially recruited Justice to run for governor as a Democrat before witnessing his surprising shift to the GOP during a rally for former President Trump.

In recent months, Manchin made an appearance in New Hampshire at an event organized by No Labels, a national political movement potentially poised to offer an independent presidential ticket in 2024. With campaign funds totaling approximately $10.8 million, compared to Mooney’s $1.5 million and Justice’s $800,000, Manchin maintains a formidable position.

Nevertheless, Justice’s high approval rating in West Virginia presents a substantial challenge to any contender. Robert Rupp, a retired political history professor at West Virginia Wesleyan, considers Manchin as one of the most accomplished campaigners in the state’s recent history, largely due to his personalized rapport with constituents.

The overarching question looms: Will Manchin risk his reputation and political career by engaging in a race where the odds appear overwhelmingly stacked against him? While many may prematurely dismiss his prospects, Rupp harbors doubts regarding a potential independent run, deeming it a road to nowhere.

During his interactions with constituents, Manchin emphasized the significance of infrastructure investments and the bipartisan collaboration that culminated in the historic legislation. He highlighted the plight of rural communities grappling with the consequences of deferred maintenance, conveying these concerns during the Charleston Amtrak renovation project’s ribbon-cutting ceremony.

In contemplating the prevailing political unrest in America, Manchin offered a reflective perspective, characterizing democracy as an ongoing experiment after 240-plus years. He cautioned against undue emphasis on a politician’s party affiliation, advocating instead for a focus on public service over self-interest.

Manchin portrayed himself as “fiscally responsible and socially compassionate,” asserting that the government’s purpose lies in securing a high quality of life for its citizens, transcending considerations of race, religion, or personal preferences. He repeatedly alluded to his independent thinking and voting, identifying more as a public servant rather than aligning strictly with a party. Critiquing the contemporary political landscape in Washington, he lamented its transformation into a business model that drives politicians to extremes, calling for a break from this troubling trajectory.

In conclusion, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a pivotal figure in the intricate web of American politics, navigates the uncertain terrain of partisan divisions with a deft touch, leaving observers and constituents pondering his next strategic move.

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