There is growing speculation that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a long-shot Democrat, is on the verge of switching his party affiliation to Independent. A recent poll conducted by John Zogby Strategies and commissioned by the American Values 2024 PAC suggests that if Kennedy does make the switch, he could have a significant impact on the 2024 presidential race.
The Poll’s Surprising Results
The poll found that in a general election between Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, and a generic independent candidate, Trump received 40 percent, Biden 38 percent, and the independent candidate 17 percent. However, in a scenario where the independent candidate is identified as “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.,” the numbers change. Trump and Biden are tied at 38 percent, with Kennedy garnering 19 percent of the vote.
These results are noteworthy because they challenge the assumption that Kennedy’s independent run would primarily draw support away from Biden, potentially benefiting Trump. Instead, the poll indicates that Kennedy could take more votes from Trump than from Biden.
Kennedy’s Political Path
While Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is not yet officially a third-party candidate, he has hinted at a major announcement on October 9 in Philadelphia. Mediaite has reported that he is planning an independent bid, although his campaign has not confirmed this.
Kennedy has so far run as a Democrat, achieving a polling average of about 14 percent in the primary race against Biden and progressive author Marianne Williamson.
His campaign, managed by former congressman Dennis Kucinich, has expanded its operations with offices in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and New Jersey. Kennedy has also increased his campaign trail activities with visits to various states.
American Values 2024’s Involvement
The American Values 2024 PAC, which supports Kennedy, is actively participating in the campaign. They have organized a “Kennedy caravan,” a campaign bus used for protests and events. The super PAC has also invested in advertising, including billboards and newspaper ads in South Carolina and New Hampshire.
Both Kennedy’s campaign and the super PAC have been successful in fundraising. A recent Eric Clapton concert raised over $2 million, which was split between the campaign and the PAC. In July alone, American Values 2024 collected $6 million, mainly following Kennedy’s testimony on censorship before the House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government.
What Lies Ahead
The poll conducted by American Values 2024 surveyed 1,008 likely general election voters in the U.S., with a margin of error of 3.2 percent. Although it remains uncertain whether Kennedy will leave the Democratic primary for an independent run, the poll suggests that such a move could lead to a three-way race in the general election.
American Values 2024 co-founder Tony Lyons emphasized the importance of allowing people to cast their votes for a candidate they have chosen, especially in light of Biden’s incumbency, which limits primary debates.
“While I cannot confirm the decision,” Lyons said, “any outcome that allows people to be heard and that allows people to actually cast a vote for a candidate that they’ve decided on themselves is a good thing.”
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