After years of a relative stalemate, a rebel offensive near Aleppo has reignited violence in Syria, jeopardizing the fragile peace established since 2020. With Syria’s key allies preoccupied with conflicts elsewhere, the balance of power in the region is increasingly unstable.
Origins of the Syrian Civil War
The Syrian civil war began in 2011 during the Arab Spring protests. Citizens called for democratic reforms under President Bashar al-Assad, but the government’s brutal crackdown transformed peaceful demonstrations into an armed conflict. The emergence of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and extremist groups like ISIL further complicated the war.
2. Foreign Interventions and Alliances
As the Assad regime faced territorial losses, it sought support from allies:
- Hezbollah entered the war in 2013.
- Russia launched a military intervention in 2015, significantly shifting the conflict in Assad’s favor.
With assistance from Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, Assad’s forces reclaimed key areas, including Aleppo and Damascus, solidifying his control over much of the country.
3. Rise of the Syrian Democratic Forces
In northeast Syria, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by Kurdish groups, emerged as a dominant force against ISIL. Despite their successes, the SDF remains a separate power, holding territory distinct from both the Syrian government and rebel factions.
4. Idlib: A Rebel Stronghold
Rebels and jihadist groups retreated to Idlib province under ceasefire agreements. Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham, linked to al-Qaeda, remains the primary force in this region. Meanwhile, Turkish-backed rebels operate in parts of Aleppo province.
5. The Fragile Ceasefire Breaks
Since a 2020 ceasefire mediated by Russia and Türkiye, violence in Syria had significantly reduced. However, a recent rebel offensive near Aleppo shattered this calm, threatening Assad’s control. Compounding the challenge, Syria’s allies, Hezbollah and Russia, are engaged in separate conflicts against Israel and Ukraine, reducing their capacity to intervene.
6. The Path Ahead
With key alliances weakened and renewed violence, Syria faces heightened instability. The recent developments underscore the fragility of its territorial boundaries and the ongoing struggle for power among its factions.
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