Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council via video link at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia October 27, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
President Vladimir Putin has signed into law Russia’s withdrawal from the global treaty prohibiting nuclear weapons tests, a move that has drawn condemnation from organizations promoting adherence to pivotal arms control agreements.
This action, while expected, underscores the profound rift between the United States and Russia, with their relations currently at their lowest ebb since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. The core issues at hand include the conflict in Ukraine and Moscow’s perception of Washington’s efforts to obstruct the emergence of a new multipolar global order.
The United States expressed deep concern over Russia’s decision, viewing it as a regrettable step in the wrong direction. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated, “Russia’s action will only serve to set back confidence in the international arms control regime.”
Moscow contends that its deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a move to align itself with the United States, which signed but never ratified the treaty. Russian diplomats have emphasized that Russia will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so. Moreover, they assert that this action will not alter Russia’s nuclear posture or its approach to sharing information about nuclear activities, as Moscow intends to remain a signatory to the treaty.
Nonetheless, some Western experts in arms control are expressing concerns that Russia’s move might be a precursor to conducting nuclear tests as a means to intimidate and sow fear amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
On October 5, Putin expressed uncertainty about whether Russia should resume nuclear testing, following calls from some Russian security experts and lawmakers to test a nuclear device as a warning to the West. Such a decision, if it were to materialize, could usher in a new era of nuclear testing by major powers.
Robert Floyd, the head of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty Organization, an entity tasked with promoting recognition of the treaty and enhancing its verification regime to ensure the detection of any nuclear tests, has unequivocally condemned Russia’s action. He described it as “very disappointing and deeply regrettable.”
The CTBT established a global network of observation posts capable of detecting the sound, shockwaves, or radioactive fallout from a nuclear explosion. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has refrained from conducting nuclear tests. The Soviet Union’s last test occurred in 1990, and the United States’ last test was in 1992. In this century, aside from North Korea, no other country has conducted nuclear tests involving a nuclear explosion.
Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, has expressed concern that Russia’s deratification of the CTBT marks a worrisome trend that could lead to the resumption of testing. He noted that recent years have witnessed the suspension or abandonment of various arms control agreements, characterizing it as a slippery slope with potentially perilous consequences.
The approval of the de-ratification law by President Putin, posted on a government website, took immediate effect after being sanctioned by Russia’s parliament.
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