Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Yevgeny Balitsky, Moscow-installed governor of the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region (not pictured), amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia November 18, 2024. Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Pool via REUTERS /File Photo
Russia Expands Nuclear Strike Doctrine
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Tuesday that lowers the threshold for a nuclear strike, enabling its use in response to a broader range of conventional attacks. This change comes as Moscow accuses Ukraine of striking deep into Russian territory using U.S.-made ATACMS missiles.
The updated doctrine outlines conditions under which a nuclear strike could be ordered, now including conventional attacks on Russia or its ally Belarus that pose “a critical threat to their sovereignty and/or territorial integrity.” Analysts suggest this marks a significant shift in Russia’s nuclear posture, reducing the circumstances under which nuclear weapons might be used.
Broader Context and Historical Comparisons
Previously, Russia’s 2020 doctrine allowed nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack or a conventional assault threatening the state’s existence. However, the new framework emphasizes retaliation against non-nuclear threats supported by nuclear powers, potentially framing any NATO-supported attack as a joint assault.
Russian diplomats likened the crisis to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, warning that the world is entering uncharted military and political territory. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov cautioned that the current crisis has no historical precedent, underscoring the heightened risk of direct conflict between nuclear powers.
Reaction to U.S. Support for Ukraine
The revision follows U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons for strikes inside Russian territory. Russia had previously warned that such actions would be interpreted as direct NATO involvement in the war. The Kremlin framed the updated doctrine as a deterrence measure to signal the inevitability of retaliation.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the doctrine’s publication was “timely” and aimed at ensuring adversaries understand the consequences of aggression against Russia or its allies.
Ukraine Strikes Deep Inside Russia
Ukraine reportedly used U.S.-made ATACMS missiles to strike Russia’s Bryansk region, with six missiles launched and five intercepted by Russian air defenses. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed U.S. personnel and intelligence contributed to the attack, marking a “new phase of the Western war against Russia.”
Lavrov emphasized Russia’s commitment to avoiding nuclear conflict but pointedly reminded the West of the U.S.’s use of nuclear weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II.
Economic and Global Reactions
The announcement of Russia’s revised doctrine sent shockwaves through global markets. Safe-haven assets such as government bonds and the Japanese yen rallied, while stocks and the euro declined. The Russian rouble fell below 100 per U.S. dollar for the first time since October 2023.
A Dangerous Phase of the War
The war in Ukraine has reached its 1,000th day, with Russian and Western officials suggesting it is entering its most perilous phase. Moscow’s forces are advancing at their fastest pace since the war’s early days, raising questions about the conflict’s endgame.
Putin’s decree also broadens the definition of potential threats, including mass attacks involving aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones. The Kremlin reiterated that nuclear weapons remain a deterrence tool, aimed at ensuring adversaries understand the inevitability of retaliation.
Escalating Risks of Nuclear Conflict
As tensions rise, Moscow’s updated doctrine underlines its willingness to consider nuclear options in scenarios far short of existential threats. Observers warn this shift lowers the barriers to potential nuclear engagement, deepening fears of escalation in a conflict already fraught with global ramifications.
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