Photograph: John Locher/AP
The Democrats find themselves in a pressing need for Sherrod Brown, though whether the Ohio senator is equally enthusiastic about aligning himself with a party struggling in a state that has firmly embraced Donald Trump remains a pertinent question.
Brown’s senatorial seat is one of three closely contested battles that will likely determine the balance of power in the United States Senate in the forthcoming year. However, the prevailing political climate does not bode well for the Democrats. In Ohio, the Republicans currently hold sway over all statewide offices except Senator Brown’s seat. Notably, Trump secured victory in the state twice, each time by a substantial margin of over 8%.
Despite these formidable odds, polling data suggests that Brown maintains a tenacious fighting chance. His appeal stems from his distinct divergence from the contemporary image of a Democrat in the eyes of many Midwestern voters. He has meticulously crafted a reputation as a champion of blue-collar Americans, often at odds with his party’s adherence to neoliberal principles. His principled opposition to free trade agreements, which have resulted in job exports from Ohio, resonates with his constituents. Impressively, he has managed to strike a delicate balance, garnering support from conservative working-class voters while championing progressive policies and marginalized communities.
David Niven, a former speechwriter for Ohio’s last Democratic governor, Ted Strickland, now a professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati, observes that Brown has carved a unique identity. His willingness to challenge his party on pivotal issues, such as his opposition to Bill Clinton’s North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which inflicted significant damage on Democrats in Ohio and other rust belt states by relocating well-paying jobs to Mexico, has set him apart.
“The good news for Brown is he’s established himself in a way that no other Democrat has, as a singular voice of blue-collar Ohio families. The bad news for Sherrod Brown is Ohio has been a place where Democratic dreams have come to die in recent elections,” Niven remarks.
Sherrod Brown remains the sole Democrat to secure a statewide victory in Ohio since 2012. Even during the Trump presidency, he managed to secure re-election, albeit against a notably weak Republican contender, with a margin of victory of less than 7%. Since that time, the Republican grip on Ohio has tightened.
A Suffolk University poll conducted in July depicted Brown in a statistical tie with the leading contenders for the Republican nomination. Over half of surveyed voters expressed approval of the senator’s job performance, but even within this group, one in six indicated a willingness to cast their vote for the leading Republican candidate.
Brown’s supporters attest to his ability to unify a diverse coalition of Democrats and other voters in a manner that distinguishes him from his party colleagues.
Brown meets with United Auto Workers on the picket line on 15 September 2023, at the Stellantis plant in Toledo, Ohio. Photograph: Jeremy Wadsworth/AP
David Cox, an ironworker and director of the Dayton Building and Construction Trades Council, found himself at odds last year with Mohamed Al-Hamdani, Chair of the Democratic Party in Dayton, over the party’s choice for Ohio’s other Senate seat, ultimately secured by Tim Ryan.
Cox held a favorable view of Ryan, applauding his focus on issues pertinent to the working class, notably his stance against NAFTA. Conversely, Al-Hamdani criticized Ryan for taking the party’s broader constituency, including people of color, for granted. In Al-Hamdani’s view, this oversight may have contributed to Ryan’s electoral defeat at the hands of the Republican JD Vance, renowned for his controversial account of growing up amidst poverty and addiction in “Hillbilly Elegy.”
Nevertheless, both Cox and Al-Hamdani find common ground in their admiration for Sherrod Brown. Cox affectionately dubs him “the worker man’s Democrat,” while Al-Hamdani recognizes Brown’s exceptional capacity to connect with a diverse array of interests.
In Al-Hamdani’s words, Brown has mastered the art of effective messaging. He not only bolsters the working class but also consistently engages with the broader base of the Democratic Party. He acknowledges the critical importance of nurturing a relationship with working-class individuals, Black constituents, and people of color, as they constitute the party’s foundational pillars.
On paper, Brown should be able to leverage Joe Biden’s accomplishments as a valuable asset. President Biden’s initiatives, such as the infrastructure law and the Chips and Science Act, which supports domestic semiconductor production, have generated thousands of jobs, particularly in the construction sector.
However, according to David Niven, a seasoned observer, the conventional political paradigms no longer hold true. Despite Biden’s resonance with union values and his personal experiences that align with the working-class narrative, he has struggled to gain significant traction in Ohio, even though the state theoretically aligns with his appeal.
Niven offers a perspective on the evolving landscape of American politics. He highlights that Ohio, once considered a promising terrain for Biden, yielded results strikingly similar to Hillary Clinton’s performance. This, Niven contends, speaks volumes about Ohio’s political transformation, painting a broader picture of shifting dynamics in contemporary American politics.
Brown listens to testimony during a Senate banking committee hearing on Capitol Hill, on 12 September in Washington DC. Photograph: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
The erosion of the bond between economic concerns and electoral choices has marked a profound transformation in the political landscape. In regions traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party, particularly those of a blue-collar disposition dating back to the era of George McGovern, a seismic shift has occurred. The Democrats, it seems, can no longer secure victory in these once-reliable territories. This shift can be largely attributed to the ascendancy of cultural issues that have eclipsed economic considerations in the minds of these voters.
Nevertheless, Senator Sherrod Brown and Ohio’s Democratic contingent have derived inspiration from a recent triumph, one that touched upon one of the most contentious cultural issues of our times. Last month, Ohioans resoundingly rejected a Republican endeavor, known as Issue 1, aimed at heightening the difficulty of amending the state constitution. This strategic move was designed to thwart attempts to codify abortion rights in the state constitution via another ballot initiative slated for November. Issue 1’s defeat, by a margin of 57% to 43%, amid an unusually high voter turnout for an August ballot vote, signifies a pivotal electoral victory for the Democrats. It underscores the potency of this issue in their favor, particularly in the wake of last year’s Supreme Court decision that curtailed constitutional safeguards.
David Niven, offering a discerning perspective, underscores the significance of this development. He views Issue 1 as the initial glimmer of hope for Democratic interests in Ohio since Senator Brown’s successful re-election bid in 2018. It signifies the potential for electoral victories and meaningful accomplishments, rekindling the Democratic spirit in the state. Niven contends that this achievement not only bolsters Brown’s standing within the national party but also sends a clear message to donors that Ohio remains a pivotal battleground. He urges against prematurely dismissing Ohio based solely on its past voting patterns, urging that the state’s unique political dynamics warrant careful consideration.
Senator Brown may also benefit from the caliber of his Republican adversaries. Among the trio who have entered the Republican primary race thus far, Frank LaRose, Ohio’s secretary of state, enjoys the highest profile. However, LaRose faces several challenges, including his stance on Issue 1. His competitors, Bernie Moreno, a prosperous car dealership owner, and Matt Dolan, a state senator from a family linked to the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, faced setbacks in their prior bids for the Republican nomination, ultimately secured by JD Vance last year.
Despite the vulnerabilities of potential Republican contenders, David Cox, the ironworker and labor council director, harbors concerns that Senator Brown’s exemplary track record may prove insufficient to counter Ohio’s rightward swing. He reflects with apprehension, particularly in light of Tim Ryan’s electoral defeat, expressing a sense of unease regarding the unfolding political landscape.
Niven, ever insightful, characterizes Senator Brown as an exemplary candidate in many respects, save for one crucial factor – the label “Democrat” beside his name on the ballot. This seemingly solitary vulnerability, Niven suggests, has been potent enough to stymie numerous Democratic aspirants in Ohio over recent election cycles.
COMMENTS