Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meets with Palestinian group Hamas’ top leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, Iran June 21, 2023. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
In early November, a meeting between Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran unveiled a nuanced stance by Iran in response to Hamas’ unexpected assault on Israel on October 7. According to anonymous Iranian and Hamas officials, Khamenei conveyed a firm message to Haniyeh: while Iran remains a steadfast political and moral supporter of Hamas, direct military intervention on behalf of the Palestinian group will not be pursued.
The surprise attack by Hamas left even its longstanding allies, including Hezbollah, caught off guard. Hezbollah, with a history of conflict with Israel, had to rapidly mobilize its forces along the Lebanon-Israel border, marking the first simultaneous engagement of the Axis of Resistance on multiple fronts.
The Axis of Resistance, a coalition cultivated by Iran over decades to counter Israeli and American influence in the Middle East, now faces a critical test. Hezbollah, for the first time in nearly two decades, finds itself in intense clashes with Israeli forces. Iran-backed militias target U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, while Yemen’s Houthi rebels launch missiles and drones towards Israel.
However, internal discord within the alliance is evident. Hamas, fighting for its survival against Israeli retaliation, issued a plea for assistance from its axis partners. Yet, Iran, the alliance’s leader, signaled a strategic restraint. It refrains from direct involvement unless its own territories are attacked by Israel or the United States. Instead, Tehran plans to leverage its network of armed allies, including Hezbollah, to launch targeted attacks on Israeli and American interests across the Middle East.
The carefully calibrated strategy aims to express solidarity with Hamas, stretching Israeli forces without triggering a direct confrontation that might draw in the United States. Analysts interpret this approach as Iran’s way of creating deterrence, signaling that any attack on its soil could alter the current dynamics.
Hezbollah, with 100,000 fighters, has engaged in border skirmishes with Israel but avoids an all-out confrontation. The group, aware of Lebanon’s fragile state and its own role in the country’s politics, refrains from escalating the conflict beyond the border.
As the United States seeks to prevent the Gaza crisis from spiraling into a broader regional conflict, it faces challenges with over 40 drone and rocket attacks launched by Axis of Resistance militias at U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. The Pentagon confirms retaliatory strikes against Iran-linked militia facilities in Syria, underscoring the potential for a wider conflagration.
Amid rising tensions, the international community, particularly the U.S., emphasizes the need to avoid further escalation. Israel, facing multiple fronts, remains vigilant, prepared to protect itself against potential threats from Hezbollah in the north.
The deep-seated enmity between Israel and Iran remains a critical factor. While Iran’s revolutionary ideology opposes Israel and the U.S., analysts suggest that Tehran’s commitment to fighting them is strategic, stopping short of direct conflict to preserve its leadership.
In this complex web of regional dynamics, the Gaza crisis serves as a litmus test for the Axis of Resistance, revealing both its strengths and internal challenges as its members navigate differing priorities and domestic issues. The outcome of this crisis could reshape the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
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