An internal memo from the top Republican Super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), reveals that most of the party’s Senate candidates are trailing their Democratic opponents, casting uncertainty over the GOP’s ability to flip the Senate in 2024. According to polling data obtained by POLITICO, the memo shows that Republican candidates are running behind Donald Trump in critical battleground states, which could severely limit their chances of gaining a significant Senate majority unless they can shift momentum in the final weeks.
Key Senate Races Show Tightening Margins
While Republicans are still favored to take control of the Senate, the latest data brings mixed results. There are promising signs in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where races have tightened, but elsewhere, like Maryland and Michigan, Republican chances are fading. Notably, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, who is running in a state Trump won in 2020, is showing unexpected strength.
Montana remains a vulnerable state for Democrats, with Senator Jon Tester trailing Republican Tim Sheehy by 4 points, according to SLF’s October polling. However, Sheehy is polling 9 points behind Trump, indicating a gap that could affect the outcome. Similarly, in Ohio, while Brown’s lead over Bernie Moreno has narrowed to 6 points, Moreno is still 8 points behind Trump in the state.
Problems for Republicans in Texas and Nebraska
The memo highlights potential trouble spots in traditionally safe Republican states like Texas and Nebraska. Senator Ted Cruz is only leading Democratic challenger Colin Allred by 1 point in Texas, a stark contrast to earlier leads. Meanwhile, Nebraska’s Senator Deb Fischer is facing polling concerns, prompting GOP strategists to consider whether intervention is necessary.
Battleground States Show Narrowing Races
In two critical Rust Belt states, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Republicans are gaining ground. In Pennsylvania, Republican Dave McCormick has reduced Senator Bob Casey’s lead from 5 points in August to 2 points in October. Similarly, in Wisconsin, Republican Eric Hovde has closed the gap against Senator Tammy Baldwin, who now leads by just 1 point.
Open Seat Struggles in Michigan and Maryland
Despite a favorable national environment for Republicans, open-seat races in Michigan and Maryland are moving in the wrong direction for the GOP. In Maryland, former Governor Larry Hogan is trailing by 7 points, while in Michigan, Elissa Slotkin has widened her lead over Mike Rogers to 8 points, showing a growing disadvantage for Republicans.
GOP Senate Strategy Hinges on Final Investments
The SLF memo emphasizes that further financial investments are needed to bolster Republican candidates in battleground states. SLF polling will guide the PAC’s decisions on where to allocate tens of millions in the final weeks of the race. Despite the challenges, the group remains optimistic that key races can still be won with the right strategic interventions.
Conclusion: GOP Faces Uphill Battle to Flip the Senate
With the election just weeks away, Republicans are facing significant hurdles in key Senate races. While they remain competitive in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Montana, other critical states like Ohio, Texas, and Maryland show challenges that could jeopardize their ability to flip the Senate. The final weeks will be crucial as the SLF and allied groups make strategic investments to maximize their chances of success.
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