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How dangerous is the new US-Russia missile race?

File photo of U.S. President Ronald Reagan (R) and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev signing the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty at the White House, on December 8 1987. REUTERS/Dennis Paquin//File Photo

Historical Context and Treaty Unraveling

Four decades ago, the United States deployed cruise and Pershing II nuclear missiles in Europe to counter Soviet SS-20s, a move that heightened Cold War tensions but ultimately led to a historic disarmament agreement. In December 1987, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. President Ronald Reagan signed a treaty to dismantle these rival systems, scrapping all ground-based shorter-range and intermediate-range nuclear and conventional weapons with ranges between 500 km and 5,500 km. Gorbachev optimistically stated, “We can be proud of planting this sapling, which may one day grow into a mighty tree of peace.”

However, this agreement began to unravel in 2019 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the treaty, citing alleged violations by Russia, which Moscow denied. The full implications of this dissolution are now becoming apparent as both sides announce plans for new missile deployments.

Recent Developments and Strategic Implications

On June 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly announced that Russia would resume the production of short and intermediate-range land-based missiles and make decisions on their deployment as needed. Security experts believe that these missiles, like most Russian systems, will likely be capable of carrying either conventional or nuclear warheads.

Subsequently, on July 10, the United States declared its intention to start deploying weapons in Germany from 2026. This deployment will include SM-6s, Tomahawks, and new hypersonic missiles, which have previously been stationed mainly on ships. While these systems are conventional, some could theoretically be equipped with nuclear warheads, compelling Russian planners to consider that possibility.

These decisions, made amidst acute tensions over Russia’s war in Ukraine and perceived nuclear threats from Putin, add to an already complex array of threats. They also contribute to a broader arms race involving China. Jon Wolfsthal, director of global risk at the Federation of American Scientists, noted, “The reality is that both Russia and the United States are taking steps that they believe enhance their security, regardless of whether it comes at the expense of the other. That’s the definition of an arms race.”

Escalation Risks and Strategic Calculations

The planned deployments are creating more scenarios for direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO countries. Andrey Baklitskiy, senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, indicated that these could hypothetically include a Russian strike on a Polish base storing Western weapons for Ukraine or a U.S. attack on a Russian radar or command and control post.

Baklitskiy emphasized that both sides already possess the capability to conduct such strikes using sea- or air-launched missiles. Adding ground-based weapons would provide more options for attack and defense, potentially escalating tensions further. Wolfsthal expressed concern that the U.S. deployments in Germany might not significantly enhance military capability but would likely increase the risk of crises spiraling out of control.

Ulrich Kuehn, an arms control specialist at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg, noted that from a Russian perspective, deploying such weapons in Europe could pose strategic threats to Russian command centers and airfields. In response, Russia might deploy more strategic missiles aimed at the continental United States.

Impact on China and Future Prospects

The deployment of intermediate-range missiles by Russia and the U.S. could also prompt China to further build up its own missile arsenal. The U.S. Department of Defense reported in 2023 that China has 2,300 missiles with ranges between 300 km and 3,000 km, and an additional 500 missiles with ranges between 3,000 km and 5,500 km. Trump’s decision to quit the INF treaty with Russia was partly driven by concerns over China’s missile capabilities, leading the U.S. to consider placing its own intermediate-range weapons in allied countries in Asia.

This evolving arms race is not limited to Russia and the United States but involves a more complex interplay with China and other U.S. allies in Asia, such as South Korea and Japan. Kuehn remarked that the likelihood of Russia and the United States reaching a new arms control deal akin to the one struck in the 1980s is remote. Baklitskiy added that even if both nations agreed to restore the INF treaty, the U.S. would face constraints due to its need to counter China’s capabilities.

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