Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks to the press next to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin, Germany, June 11, 2024. REUTERS/Nadja Wohlleben/File Photo
Germany to Reduce Military Aid to Ukraine Amidst Concerns Over Future U.S. Support
Germany plans to significantly reduce its military aid to Ukraine next year, halving the assistance despite worries about the potential decrease in U.S. support for Kyiv should Republican candidate Donald Trump return to the White House.
According to a draft of the 2025 budget obtained by Reuters, German aid to Ukraine will be reduced to 4 billion euros ($4.35 billion) in 2025, down from approximately 8 billion euros in 2024. Germany anticipates that Ukraine will be able to meet most of its military requirements through the $50 billion in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets approved by the Group of Seven. The German government also hopes that the funds designated for armaments will not be entirely expended.
“Ukraine’s financing is secured for the foreseeable future thanks to European instruments and the G7 loans,” stated German Finance Minister Christian Lindner during a news conference on Wednesday. Washington has advocated for “front-loading” the loans to provide Ukraine with a substantial lump sum immediately. European Union leaders have agreed to this approach partly to mitigate the risk of Ukraine facing a financial shortfall if Trump were to return to the White House.
Concerns were heightened across Europe this week after Trump selected Senator J.D. Vance, who opposes military aid for Ukraine and has warned that Europe will need to rely less on the United States for its defense, as his vice-presidential candidate. Trump has previously faced intense criticism from Western officials for suggesting he would not defend countries that fail to meet NATO’s defense spending targets and might even encourage Russian aggression towards them. Germany has been repeatedly criticized for failing to meet NATO’s target of spending 2% of its GDP on defense.
Depleted Military Stocks
Germany’s armed forces have been significantly depleted by decades of underinvestment, a situation exacerbated by the provision of arms to Kyiv. To date, Berlin has supplied three Patriot air defense units to Kyiv, more than any other country, reducing the number of Patriot systems in Germany to nine.
Germany’s coalition government, comprising the left-leaning Social Democrats, pro-business liberals, and ecologist Greens, has struggled to meet NATO’s spending target due to self-imposed limits on state borrowing. Despite the reduction in military aid to Ukraine, Germany will meet the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defense in 2025, amounting to a total of 75.3 billion euros.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a “Zeitenwende” or historic turning point, with a 100 billion euro special fund to modernize the military. From this fund, 22.0 billion euros will be allocated to defense, in addition to 53.3 billion euros from the regular budget, still below the amount requested by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
The defense budget for 2025 will see a modest increase of 1.3 billion euros over 2024, significantly less than the 6.7 billion euros sought by Pistorius. Due to escalating annual operating costs, the defense ministry will be forced to cut ammunition orders for 2025 by more than half, reduce procurement by 260 million euros, and decrease research and development by over 200 million euros.
The 2025 budget includes mid-term financial planning extending to 2028, the year when the armed forces’ special fund to meet NATO’s minimum spending goals is set to expire, requiring 80 billion euros for defense. According to the financial plan, there will be a gap of 39 billion euros in the regular budget by 2028, with 28 billion euros needed to meet the NATO target without the special fund, as noted by finance ministry sources. Decisions on addressing this shortfall are expected to be made only after the 2025 election.
“The 80 billion euros projected for 2028 are non-existent,” stated Ingo Gaedechens, a member of the parliament’s budget committee from the conservative opposition party CDU. “The coalition is not even attempting to conceal this but are openly admitting it.”
($1 = 0.9192 euros)
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