Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris reacts as she speaks at North Western High School in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., September 2, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
Kamala Harris Gains Ground with Hispanic Voters on Key Issues
Overview
Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly closed the gap with former President Donald Trump on economic issues among Hispanic voters, while also establishing a strong lead on healthcare and climate change. This shift, highlighted in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, underscores the importance of Hispanic voters, a crucial and growing demographic in the U.S. electorate, ahead of the November 5 presidential election.
Polling Insights
The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted from August 21 to 28, revealed that while the broader electorate favors Trump over Harris on economic issues (45% to 36%), Hispanic voters are evenly split, with each candidate receiving 39% support. This marks an improvement for Democrats, as a previous poll in May showed Biden trailing Trump among Hispanic voters on the economy.
Hispanic voters showed a clear preference for Harris on healthcare and climate change:
- Healthcare: 46% favored Harris, while 29% supported Trump.
- Climate Change: Harris led by a 23-point margin, with 46% support compared to Trump’s 23%.
These leads are larger than those Harris holds among the broader electorate, where she is also favored on these issues.
Immigration Policy and Other Issues
Trump maintains an edge on immigration policy, with 42% of Hispanic voters preferring his approach compared to 37% for Harris. However, this margin is narrower than Trump’s lead among the broader electorate (46% to 36%).
The Hispanic Vote’s Importance
Hispanic voters represent a diverse and fast-growing segment of the electorate. They are seen as pivotal swing voters in the upcoming election. Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist, noted that Harris is resonating with Hispanic voters by sharing an aspirational life story that counters Trump’s economic narrative. Harris’ background as the daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India has also played a role in connecting with this demographic.
Hispanic voters, many of whom have immigrant backgrounds and are more vulnerable to economic fluctuations, have historically favored the Democratic Party. However, Trump’s competitive stance on the economy among Hispanics suggests that the Republican Party is making inroads with this key voter group.
Demographic and Electoral Implications
Hispanics made up about 14% of voting-age U.S. citizens in 2022, up from 9% in 2005-2009. In the 2020 election, Biden won the Hispanic vote by 21 points, but Harris’ current 13-point lead indicates potential gains for Trump.
Republican strategists view Trump’s parity with Harris on economic issues as a positive sign. Despite the cooling of U.S. inflation and a slight reduction in consumer prices, voter sentiments remain fluid, and the Hispanic vote, in particular, is challenging to predict for 2024 due to its younger demographic skew and the prevalence of first-time voters.
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