Hamas Attack on Israel Threatens Biden’s Middle East Strategy

The recent stunning attack by Palestinian militants of Hamas on Israel has thrown a wrench into President Joe Biden’s Middle East strategy. Here’s a closer look at how this attack could impact Biden’s priorities in the region.

A Distraction from the Greater Challenge: China

The Biden administration had been striving to bring stability to the Middle East, partly to allow greater focus on the long-term challenge posed by China. However, the Hamas attack has disrupted this strategy, diverting attention away from China.

Unraveling Progress in the Middle East

The Biden administration had achieved significant but often unsung successes in the Middle East, including freezing the war in Yemen and fostering diplomatic and economic ties between Israel and once-hostile Arab states. However, the conflict with Hamas now threatens to undo this progress.

Key Questions Arise

National security professionals are grappling with several crucial questions:

1. How Big Will the Conflict Get?: The Israel-Hamas conflict could escalate into a wider war, impacting the entire region, including U.S. interests.
2. Is Iran Responsible?: While some point fingers at Iran due to its historical support for Hamas, the exact role of Iran in this attack remains unclear.
3. The Saudi-Israel Peace Initiative: Will the Hamas attack derail the U.S.-backed peace initiative that aimed to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel? While the plan may be delayed, it’s not necessarily derailed.
4. Intelligence Failures: How did Israel, with its extensive intelligence apparatus, miss this sophisticated Hamas attack?
5. Impact on Ukraine: While the U.S. is providing support to Israel, it’s also grappling with whether to continue aiding Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
6. China’s Role: China’s response to the violence has frustrated Israelis, potentially affecting China’s role in the region.

A Delicate Balancing Act

The situation in the Middle East is evolving rapidly, posing challenges for the Biden administration’s broader goals. As the conflict continues, it remains to be seen how it will impact regional dynamics and global diplomacy.