A volunteer who aspire to join the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attends basic training, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, at an undisclosed location in the Kyiv region, Ukraine January 9, 2024. REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi/File Photo
Two senior advisers to former President Donald Trump have proposed a strategy to terminate the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, contingent upon Trump’s potential victory in the upcoming presidential election. The strategy hinges on compelling Ukraine to enter peace negotiations by leveraging continued U.S. military support, while simultaneously warning Russia of increased American support for Ukraine should Moscow refuse to engage in talks.
Key Elements of the Strategy
The plan, developed by retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz—both former chiefs of staff in Trump’s National Security Council—envisions a ceasefire based on current battle lines during the peace negotiations. This approach has been presented to Trump, who responded positively, according to Fleitz. However, Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung emphasized that only statements from Trump or authorized campaign members should be considered official.
Potential Shift in U.S. Policy
This proposed strategy represents the most detailed plan associated with Trump, who has asserted that he could swiftly resolve the conflict if elected, though he has not previously provided specifics. The plan would signify a significant shift in the U.S. stance on the war, potentially facing resistance from European allies and factions within the Republican Party.
The Kremlin has indicated that any proposed peace plan from a future Trump administration must reflect the existing realities on the ground. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated President Vladimir Putin’s openness to negotiations, provided they consider the current state of affairs.
Components of the Proposal
Outlined in a research paper by the America First Policy Institute, where both Kellogg and Fleitz hold leadership positions, the plan stresses the urgency of bringing Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table quickly. It suggests conditioning U.S. support for Ukraine on its willingness to negotiate and threatening increased support for Ukraine if Russia refuses to engage.
The proposal includes delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership as an incentive for Russia to participate in peace talks. Despite the devastating toll of trench warfare, which has resulted in significant casualties, the plan does not require Ukraine to formally cede territory to Russia. Instead, it acknowledges the improbability of Ukraine regaining control over all its territory in the near term.
Reactions and Implications
Trump spokesperson Cheung reiterated Trump’s commitment to negotiating an end to the conflict, asserting that the war would not have occurred under his presidency. Conversely, the Biden campaign criticized Trump’s stance, suggesting he would not oppose Putin or support democracy.
Some Republicans may be hesitant to increase aid to Ukraine under this plan, given the substantial U.S. expenditure on military assistance since the invasion. Analysts have expressed concern that the plan might favor Russia by pushing Ukraine to concede occupied territories.
In recent public statements, Putin has indicated that the war could end if Ukraine abandons its NATO ambitions and cedes certain territories to Russia. Western allies, including France and Britain, have maintained that peace efforts should only proceed with Russia’s withdrawal from Ukrainian territory, a stance supported by Kyiv.
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