Russian President Vladimir Putin lights a candle in memory of the victims of the Crocus City Hall attack, on the day of national mourning in a church at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, Russia March 24, 2024. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
President Vladimir Putin asserts that Russia’s conflict in Ukraine is part of an existential struggle with the West, requiring undivided focus. However, recent deadly shootings in Dagestan underscore a growing threat from militant Islam, potentially necessitating a reallocation of resources.
Recent Violence and Security Concerns
The latest incident, which resulted in the deaths of at least 20 individuals in a series of coordinated shootings in southern Russia, poses significant challenges for the country’s intelligence and security services. These services have been primarily concentrated on Ukraine and the risk of related attacks within Russia.
“Radical Islamism is again raising its head in Russia,” stated Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, who recently visited the North Caucasus region. He emphasized the gravity of Islamist terrorism and called for decisive governmental action.
The involvement of relatives of a local official and an individual with past affiliations to a pro-Kremlin party in the attacks raises concerns about potential infiltration of local elites. The attacks in Derbent and Makhachkala, which claimed the lives of a Russian Orthodox priest and at least 15 policemen, and saw the burning of a synagogue, challenge Putin’s longstanding commitment to ensuring domestic stability. Experts suggest these events may prompt a reassessment of the administration of impoverished, predominantly Muslim Dagestan.
Broader Context and Implications
In October, the same region experienced riots where individuals shouting “Allahu Akbar” stormed an airport to intercept Jewish passengers from a Tel Aviv flight. Dagestan holds strategic military significance, with a naval base for Russia’s Caspian Flotilla under construction. To the west lies Chechnya, another predominantly Muslim region, where Moscow has previously fought two wars against separatists since the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.
Riccardo Valle, Director of Research at The Khorasan Diary, a non-partisan center reporting on regional militancy, indicated that Islamic State and other jihadist groups are exploiting the opportunities presented by Russia’s war in Ukraine. He noted that the conflict has hampered vital cooperation between Moscow and the West against Islamic State, diverting Russian resources and exposing significant security gaps.
Recent Attacks and Government Response
The Dagestan shootings follow a March attack on the Crocus City concert hall near Moscow, claimed by Islamic State, which resulted in nearly 150 fatalities. Moscow suggested Ukrainian involvement in the attack, an allegation denied by Kyiv. Additionally, an Islamic State-linked prison uprising in Rostov last week saw special forces neutralize six inmates who had taken hostages.
Western military experts observed that Sunday’s attacks appeared well-coordinated. While there was no immediate claim of responsibility, Islamic State-Khorasan’s Al-Azaim Media praised the attackers from the Caucasus. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War suggested that Wilayat Kavkaz, the Northern Caucasus branch of Islamic State, likely orchestrated the shootings.
The Kremlin reported that President Putin closely monitored the situation, issuing directives, and initiating an investigation. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, downplayed concerns about a return to the late 1990s and early 2000s, a period marked by frequent Islamist attacks on civilian targets across Russia. He asserted that contemporary Russian society is unified against such terrorist activities.
Sergei Melikov, head of the Dagestan region, characterized the attacks as an attempt to destabilize society. Despite the March concert hall attack forewarning from the United States, the Kremlin maintains that it remains vigilant. Valle highlighted that Turkish government sources recently disclosed their assistance in thwarting a planned attack in Moscow, indicating ongoing security challenges exacerbated by the Ukraine conflict.
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