When the EU and Canada meet for talks this week, their encounter will be calm, pleasant and even, in the words of one EU diplomat, “just plain boring.” But both sides will be contending with a looming problem — Donald J. Trump.
Current State of Affairs
The U.S. is key to the economies of both sides. As the EU, especially, struggles to cope with the trade legacy of the previous Trump term, the unpredictability of another Trump presidency is sending shivers through Brussels.
Geopolitical Concerns
After the recent visit of EU leaders to the White House, the bloc’s relationship with the U.S. will be discussed with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, according to officials briefed on the summit. Another four years of antagonism under a Trump White House would be a grave blow to the EU and Canada; both also fear that U.S. military and financial support for Ukraine will disintegrate with a Trump presidency.
Ongoing Talks and Challenges
For now, the talks should provide the participants with a break after weeks of navigating both the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war.
Bilateral Commitments and Future Prospects
In St. John’s, at least, leaders will be able to reaffirm their bilateral relationship and underscore their “shared commitment to democratic values, multilateralism and the international rules-based order,” which elsewhere are falling apart. The two sides are set to double down on their bilateral commitments in new policy fields with an “impressive list of deliverables,” according to the EU official, including a green alliance, more cooperation on raw materials, and a digital partnership.
Challenges with the U.S. Administration
But while the EU remains on a good footing with Canada, it has struggled with the current U.S. administration of President Joe Biden, most notably with Washington’s Inflation Reduction Act, which will also be discussed on the sidelines of the St. John’s summit.
Closing Remarks and Future Outlook
EU Ambassador to Canada Melita Gabrič told that Ottawa’s relationship with the bloc is “closer than it has ever been.” She declined, however, to say if she saw Trump’s potential return as a catalyst for even closer ties in the year ahead.
“We will see what happens, but certainly we put a premium on our transatlantic relations,” she said, referring to both the U.S. and Canada.
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