Capitol Hill is experiencing a whirlwind of political turmoil, from narrowly averting a government shutdown to a potentially historic attempt to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) is poised to make a move against McCarthy as early as Monday, leaving many questions about the week ahead.
What Support Does Gaetz Need?
To force a vote on vacating the speakership, Gaetz only needs one member’s support. However, winning such a vote requires a majority of those present and voting. Gaetz will need to secure enough votes to cover the margin of the GOP’s majority, which currently stands at five votes.
Most Republicans believe that Gaetz has the necessary votes, with some openly endorsing the idea. However, McCarthy’s allies are closely monitoring several GOP representatives, potentially forming a group of around 20. Leadership remains skeptical of such a large defection.
Gaetz’s Strategy to Gain Support
Gaetz and his supporters argue that McCarthy cannot be relied upon in long-term spending negotiations with Democrats, pointing to his aversion to government shutdowns. The Ukraine issue also plays a crucial role, with Gaetz claiming that McCarthy struck a secret deal with Democrats over Ukraine aid.
McCarthy’s Response
McCarthy has responded with strong rhetoric, asserting that he is ready for a fight. He frames his position as preventing a government shutdown, positioning himself against Gaetz’s efforts.
McCarthy’s allies are actively working to isolate Gaetz and accuse him of collaborating with Democrats to remove the speaker.
Democrats’ Perspective
While speculation abounds that Democrats might assist McCarthy in keeping his position, the party appears deeply scornful of him. McCarthy’s refusal to grant Democrats more time to review the CR text and his blame-shifting tactics have left Democrats furious.
Democrats have discussed potential concessions, including reallocating committees and demanding equal representation on the House Rules Committee.
Can Democrats Unify?
Unifying around a strategy will be a test for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. McCarthy may need only a small number of Democrats voting present or abstaining to save his position.
House Democratic leaders emphasize the need for unity and discourage freelancing.
Process of Removing a Speaker
The process for removing a speaker is not well-established. Gaetz or another member would file a resolution to vacate the speakership, triggering a two-legislative-day countdown before a vote. McCarthy’s allies could move to table the resolution at any point.
If the vote succeeds, the House would start the process of electing a new speaker. If it fails, Gaetz vows to continue his efforts, potentially leading to multiple attempts and prolonged drama in the House.
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