Three new national polls released Sunday morning provide President Joe Biden with arguments to remain the Democratic Party’s nominee this fall, even after his poor debate performance last month. These polls, conducted before the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, underscore the structural challenges Biden’s campaign has faced for months.
Biden’s Numbers Remain Steady
The CBS News, Fox News, and NBC News polls show that Biden’s numbers have not slipped significantly since the late June debate. Despite concerns, the anticipated political freefall did not materialize in the data. However, Biden consistently trails Trump by a slight margin, even ahead of this week’s Republican convention in Milwaukee.
Key Poll Findings:
- Fox News Poll: Trump leads Biden 49% to 48%. In mid-June, Biden led by 2 points, but this shift is within the poll’s margin of error.
- NBC News Poll: Trump leads Biden 45% to 43%, maintaining a 2-point lead from April.
- CBS News Poll: In key battleground states, Trump leads Biden 50% to 48%, similar to last week’s 51% to 48% lead for Trump.
Biden Campaign’s Efforts and Concerns
The Biden campaign has been working to reassure Democrats that he should remain the party’s nominee, citing consistent polling data. Despite this, nearly two dozen congressional Democrats have called on Biden to step aside and allow another candidate to step forward.
Voter Concerns and Implications
While Biden’s overall numbers are stable, the data reveals significant concerns among voters. A majority, 79%, in the NBC News poll express major or moderate concerns about Biden’s age and his ability to serve a second term. In contrast, only 50% of voters expressed similar concerns about Trump’s age.
Impact of Trump’s Assassination Attempt and Upcoming Events
It is too early to predict whether the assassination attempt on Trump or the Republican convention will significantly alter voter sentiment. The stability of the race following the debate suggests that dramatic shifts are unlikely. However, the coming weeks will be crucial in understanding the full impact on the electorate.
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