Historian Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate presidential election forecasts, has predicted that Kamala Harris will win the White House in the upcoming November election. Lichtman, who previously cautioned against removing Joe Biden from the Democratic ticket, now believes Harris, who became the nominee after Biden withdrew in July, is poised to defeat former President Donald Trump.
Lichtman’s Bold Prediction
In a recent video for the New York Times, Lichtman made his prediction while running in a track athlete’s outfit, competing in a senior Olympics qualifying race. Despite the Democrats losing the advantage of presidential incumbency—one of Lichtman’s 13 key indicators used to forecast election outcomes—he remains confident in Harris’s success.
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States — at least that’s my prediction for the outcome of this race,” Lichtman, 77, declares at the end of the video. He emphasizes that while his prediction is based on his unique set of criteria, the final result depends on voter turnout.
The 13 Keys to the White House
Lichtman’s predictions are grounded in his 13 Keys to the White House model, which assesses various factors to determine election outcomes. Although his method does not consider polling trends, he has identified eight keys favoring Harris. These include:
- Absence of a strong third-party candidate following the end of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent bid.
- Positive economic indicators both short- and long-term.
- Significant legislative achievements by the Biden administration.
- Lack of social unrest or scandals affecting the White House.
- Smooth transition from Biden to Harris without a contentious party nomination battle.
Despite two unresolved keys related to foreign policy successes or failures, Lichtman believes they won’t be sufficient for Trump to overcome Harris in the election.
Historical Accuracy and Methodology
Lichtman’s forecasting method has a notable track record. He accurately predicted Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory over Hillary Clinton when most polls forecasted otherwise. He also predicted Trump’s impeachments—both of which occurred during his presidency.
A history professor at American University, Lichtman has been making presidential election forecasts since 1984, claiming accurate predictions in all but one election: George W. Bush’s contested win over Al Gore in 2000. Lichtman argues that this sole blemish is unjustified, citing issues with ballot disqualification and the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Bush’s favor.
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