Gov. Andy Beshear in July 2022 in Whitesburg, Kentucky. Michael Swensen/Getty Images
In a state known as a Republican stronghold, Kentucky’s Democratic Governor, Andy Beshear, stands a good chance of winning a second term in office. Beshear, who narrowly won the governorship four years ago, has consistently led in the polls against his Republican opponent, State Attorney General Daniel Cameron. His ability to maintain popularity in a state traditionally dominated by Republicans offers insights into the Democratic Party’s strategies for holding ground in challenging political landscapes.
Beshear’s success can be attributed to his refusal to engage in Joe Manchin-style centrism, firmly aligning himself with Democratic Party priorities. His consistent stance on key issues, rather than wavering to appeal to a broader audience, serves as a template for how to maintain a strong position in a politically hostile environment.
Kentucky, a state that has been historically difficult for Democrats, presents a unique challenge. It combines demographics and political characteristics that typically work against the party. It ranks as the seventh-whitest state, with relatively lower percentages of college-educated residents and young voters. If Democrats could make progress in states like Kentucky, it would significantly benefit their national electoral prospects.
Beshear’s success in Kentucky can be attributed to several factors, including the alignment of the governor and the president from the same party. Research has shown that voters often attribute economic outcomes to political leaders from opposing parties. In a struggling economy, voters tend to blame the governor of the opposing party rather than the president. However, when the governor and president are from the same party, this effect diminishes.
Beshear’s approval ratings are influenced by policy outcomes that align with his ideological preferences, and the state’s economic performance is a critical factor. Even in the presence of standard partisan divisions about evaluating economic performance, Beshear has managed to maintain voter trust in economic matters.
Beshear’s ability to work strategically, even in the face of a Republican-dominated legislature, has allowed him to enact policies that align with his party’s priorities. While unable to prevent certain conservative measures from becoming law, he has endorsed policies that are popular when they are not closely associated with the national Democratic Party. His approach, focused on maximizing his limited powers and avoiding divisive issues, could serve as a blueprint for other Democrats in red states.
Beshear’s popularity also highlights a discrepancy between public sentiment about the economy and what respondents tell pollsters about national conditions or President Biden’s record. His high approval ratings in a traditionally Republican state suggest that voters can form independent assessments, even when they identify with a particular political party.
In conclusion, Beshear’s ability to maintain popularity and govern effectively in a traditionally red state offers valuable lessons for Democrats looking to succeed in challenging political environments. His approach combines strategic use of power, support for policies with broad appeal, and consistent alignment with Democratic priorities. His example suggests that voters are not simply influenced by partisan cues and can make independent assessments under the right circumstances. This highlights the need for Democrats, including President Biden, to emphasize aspects of their economic record that have broad cross-partisan appeal.
COMMENTS