Vance or Harris: Does a VP Pick Help Win the US Election?

Analyzing the Impact of Vice Presidential Selections on Election Outcomes

Recent discussions around the selection of JD Vance by Donald Trump as his vice-presidential candidate have sparked debates about the influence of a VP pick on election results. Historical data and research provide insights into whether choosing a specific VP candidate significantly boosts a presidential campaign’s chances of winning.

Key Highlights:

• Historical Impact: Research shows that VP picks rarely sway the election outcome in key states or among critical demographics. Kyle Kopko, an adjunct professor of political science, notes that running mates seldom deliver their home states for presidential candidates.
• State Performance: Presidential candidates often win their running mate’s home state, but this does not necessarily translate to an overall election advantage. For example, while Biden won California in 2020, it has been a Democratic stronghold since 1992.
• Demographic Influence: Despite predictions that Kamala Harris would boost support among Black voters, there is little statistical evidence to suggest that VP selections significantly mobilize specific voter groups.
• Policy Alignment: Candidates may choose VPs who align with their politics to reinforce their policy agendas. Trump’s selection of Vance is seen as a strategic move to ensure policy alignment and ease of collaboration.

Case Studies:

• Biden-Harris (2020): Biden’s selection of Kamala Harris did not significantly alter his poll standings. Pre-announcement, Biden led Trump by 8.2 points; post-announcement, his lead was 8.9 points.
• Trump-Pence (2016): Trump’s choice of Mike Pence did not drastically change his poll numbers against Hillary Clinton, highlighting the limited impact of VP picks on voter preferences.

Implications for 2024

The selection of JD Vance by Trump and the re-nomination of Kamala Harris by Biden illustrate the nuanced considerations behind choosing a running mate. While VP selections can complement a presidential candidate’s platform and provide regional balance, their ability to decisively sway elections remains limited according to historical trends.