U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a bilateral meeting at Filoli estate on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Woodside, California, U.S., November 15, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
The year concludes with an uneasy detente between China and the U.S., marked by spy balloon concerns, semiconductor disputes, and heightened military rivalry. A November meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping signaled a desire to improve relations, but challenges loom in 2024, including Taiwan’s elections and the U.S. presidential race.
The upcoming Taiwan elections on January 13 pose a potential flashpoint. Vice President Lai Ching-te and running mate Hsiao Bi-khim lead in polls, causing China to increase military and political pressure, framing the elections as a choice between “peace and war.” Analysts speculate on Xi moderating China’s response if Lai wins, but tensions remain high.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election, likely a Biden-Trump rematch, could significantly impact U.S.-China relations. While both candidates may engage in anti-China rhetoric, Xi’s concern lies in Trump’s potential return. A Trump victory could bring unpredictability, contrasting with Biden’s rule-following approach and semi-functional U.S.-China ties.
The semiconductor conflict intensifies as U.S. export controls restrict advanced chips from reaching China. Expectations of annual updates to these controls in 2024 raise tensions. China’s dominance in rare earth metals adds leverage, but Beijing faces challenges as retaliating against U.S. businesses could deter essential foreign capital.
The U.S. crackdown on technology exports to China is expected to escalate, with investigations into apparent violations. The Biden administration’s task force aims to counter efforts to acquire sensitive U.S. technology illegally, anticipating significant export enforcement actions in 2024.
As the year concludes, the delicate detente between China and the U.S. faces uncertainties tied to geopolitical events and leadership changes, with potential impacts on trade, technology, and military relations.
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