Ukraine’s recent military offensive in Russia’s Kursk region has brought the issue of Western support for Kyiv into sharp focus. Despite past reluctance, Germany and other allies appear to be softening their stance on Ukraine’s right to use Western-supplied weapons on Russian soil.
Germany’s Evolving Stance on Ukrainian Self-Defense:
Historically, Germany has been cautious about provoking Russia, especially concerning the supply of weapons that could be used against Russian targets. However, the latest incursion into Russia has not triggered significant resistance from Berlin. The German foreign ministry has reiterated Ukraine’s right to self-defense under international law, a notable shift from earlier caution.
Political Support within Germany:
While Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains silent on the issue during his summer vacation, other German politicians, particularly from the conservative opposition, have been vocal in their support. Roderich Kiesewetter, a senior lawmaker with the Christian Democrats, declared it legitimate for Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia using German-donated weapons, viewing them as Ukrainian property once delivered.
The U.S. Perspective and the Broader Context:
The U.S. has similarly adapted its stance, initially granting approval for Ukraine to defend itself against attacks from just over the Russian border. The current offensive, however, extends beyond this limited area, yet Washington has not shown overt concern, highlighting a tacit endorsement of Ukraine’s broader military strategy.
Internal German Political Divisions:
Despite this emerging consensus, Germany’s ruling coalition remains divided on the issue. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens are more supportive of Ukraine’s use of German weapons in its offensive, while Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is more cautious, wary of further escalating tensions with Moscow.
The Role of German Weapons in the Offensive:
Reports suggest that German-supplied weapons, including Marder infantry fighting vehicles and Leopard-2 battle tanks, are being used in the current offensive. While the German government has not confirmed this, the evidence is mounting, raising questions about the long-term implications for Germany’s military support to Ukraine.
Impact on Upcoming German State Elections:
Germany’s support for Ukraine has also become a contentious issue ahead of three state elections in eastern Germany. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and the populist-left Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht are gaining traction, with both advocating for a more conciliatory approach toward Russia. This growing political polarization could influence the future direction of Germany’s foreign policy.
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