The scene at a “Stop The Tories” election afterparty as they celebrate early election poll results in London, Britain, July 4, 2024. REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett
LONDON — Labour Party leader Keir Starmer is on track to become Britain’s next prime minister, with his party projected to win a substantial majority in the parliamentary election, according to an exit poll on Thursday. The poll indicates Labour will secure 410 seats out of 650, resulting in a 170-seat majority and ending 14 years of Conservative-led government.
Conservative Party’s Historic Loss
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is forecast to win only 131 seats, a significant drop from their previous 346 seats, marking the worst electoral performance in the party’s history. The decline is attributed to voter frustration over a cost-of-living crisis and prolonged instability and in-fighting within the party, which has seen five different prime ministers since 2016.
Labour’s Immediate Plans
Pat McFadden, Labour’s campaign coordinator, stated, “Britain’s future was on the ballot at this election. And, if we are successful tonight, Labour will get to work immediately with our first steps for change.”
Other Parties’ Performances
The centrist Liberal Democrats are predicted to win 61 seats, while the right-wing populist Reform UK, led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, is forecast to secure 13 seats. This outcome suggests a shift in public support towards the centre-left, contrasting with the recent gains by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally in France.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) is expected to win only 10 seats, its worst performance since 2010, following a period of internal turmoil, leadership changes, and a police investigation into the party’s finances.
Historical Accuracy of Exit Polls
Historically, exit polls in the UK have been accurate, with only one incorrect prediction in the last six elections. Official results will be announced over the coming hours.
Background and Campaign Challenges
Sunak called the election earlier than necessary in May, despite trailing Labour by approximately 20 points in opinion polls. His campaign faced numerous setbacks, including a gambling scandal and controversies over his political decisions, such as his early departure from D-Day commemorative events in France.
Labour’s Turnaround
The projected Labour victory represents a significant turnaround for Starmer and the party, which faced an existential crisis three years ago. Scandals during Boris Johnson’s tenure, particularly those related to COVID lockdown parties, eroded the Conservative lead. Liz Truss’ brief and problematic premiership further solidified the decline, and Sunak was unable to recover the party’s standing.
Voter Sentiment
While there is no overwhelming enthusiasm for Starmer, his call for change has resonated with voters. However, the predicted Labour result falls short of the record set by Tony Blair in 1997, when Labour won 418 seats with a 179-seat majority.
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