Secretary of State Antony Blinken with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara. (Jonathan Ernst / Pool via AFP – Getty Images)
The Biden administration is currently facing challenges in managing an escalating crisis in the Middle East. President Biden and his top diplomat have yet to convince the Israeli government to temporarily cease its offensive against Palestinian militants to facilitate increased humanitarian aid delivery into Gaza.
The conflict, triggered by Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 and the subsequent significant Israeli response, is testing the U.S.’ influence in the region. The United States is striving to maintain its long-standing support for Israel while dealing with growing international outrage, particularly from America’s Arab allies, over the humanitarian crisis faced by Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
The situation has left the U.S., Israel, and its Western allies in a somewhat isolated position, reminiscent of the dynamics seen during the 2003 Iraq War. This isolation is damaging alliances and potentially fueling extremism, according to Western diplomats.
One day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected U.S. appeals for a humanitarian pause in Israel’s military operations in Gaza, Secretary of State Antony Blinken held discussions with Arab foreign ministers in Amman, Jordan. These ministers left the meeting deeply disappointed as they felt Washington was unable to influence Israel.
A senior Arab diplomat expressed the meeting’s futility, indicating that everyone had expected the U.S. to secure a humanitarian pause but that it appeared to be more challenging than anticipated.
During Blinken’s recent diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, he had to reassure leaders that the U.S. would not condone any attempt to forcibly relocate Gaza’s civilians to Egypt while Israel conducted its military offensive against Hamas. Israel had initially proposed the idea of transferring hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to Egypt during the conflict, but this proposal was rejected by the Biden administration.
The crisis has raised suspicions among Palestinians and Arab governments that Israel is seeking to permanently expel Palestinians from their homes.
Following the Hamas attack, Israel suggested temporary, rolling pauses to allow for more humanitarian aid and potential hostage releases by Hamas. However, Israel has insisted on the release of the hostages held by Hamas as a precondition for any cease-fire. The Biden administration is actively discussing these tactical pauses with Israeli counterparts.
The Biden administration has attempted to persuade Israel to pursue a limited, surgical military campaign to ease international pressure over the humanitarian situation in Gaza, drawing from the U.S. military’s experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, Israel’s military actions are guided by operational considerations, while the Biden administration is looking at the geopolitical impact and international responses to the Gaza conflict.
The Biden administration has also struggled to build a consensus on future political arrangements in Gaza in the event that Hamas is defeated by Israel. Israel hopes that Arab governments will play a role in shaping and financing a future governing authority in Gaza, but these Arab governments are reluctant to be seen as compensating for Israeli actions.
While Western powers support Israel’s goal of removing Hamas and would like to see Arab partners involved in future arrangements, they understand the reservations of Arab states in this regard. In private discussions with Israeli leadership, Western diplomats have emphasized that Israel cannot absolve itself of longer-term responsibilities.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi has pointed out that discussing potential political solutions for Gaza is challenging while the conflict continues. He stressed the need to prioritize addressing the immediate crisis.
Tensions in the region have become increasingly evident, with a senior official in Ankara accusing Washington of granting Israel “full impunity.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has described the U.S. effort to secure a pause in Israel’s military campaign as a “work in progress.” He also emphasized that discussions held in Middle Eastern capitals were aimed at preventing the conflict from spreading to other countries.
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