The winds of change are sweeping across the Middle East. Last week, Russia began withdrawing its air forces from Syria, marking the end of Moscow’s military dominance in a region it once sought to control. This retreat, coupled with the recent fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, highlights a transformative moment not just for Syria but for the balance of power in the Middle East. The primary story here is not the collapse of Assad, but the strategic defeat of Vladimir Putin’s Russia—a reckoning long overdue, with Turkey emerging as the key architect of this shift.
Putin’s Heavy Price: A Delayed Bill Comes Due
The echoes of February 2020 still resonate. It was then that Turkey, enraged by a Russian airstrike that martyred 33 of its soldiers in Idlib, had to endure the indignity of being kept waiting in the Kremlin. That meeting between President Erdoğan and President Putin symbolized the uneven dynamic between the two nations. But history, as it often does, has turned the tables. Four years later, it is Putin who is paying the price for underestimating Turkey’s resolve.
Russia’s retreat from Syria is not a voluntary act—it is the result of strategic overreach and economic exhaustion. Engaged in a costly war in Ukraine and hampered by crippling sanctions, Moscow can no longer afford to sustain its military footprint in Syria. What Putin once hailed as a triumph of Russian interventionism has now turned into a liability, with Turkey leading the charge to fill the vacuum left behind.
Turkey’s Role: The Regional Game-Changer
Turkey’s role in this transformation cannot be overstated. For years, Ankara has been working patiently and methodically to undermine Russia’s influence in Syria. Unlike other powers that rely solely on military might, Turkey employed a multi-dimensional approach, combining diplomacy, humanitarian assistance, and targeted military interventions. The withdrawal of Russian air forces is a testament to Turkey’s strategic success and its ability to outmaneuver even the most formidable opponents.
This withdrawal also signals the weakening of Moscow’s grip over the region. The Russian military, once seen as the backbone of Assad’s survival, has now abandoned its posts, leaving a fractured regime to fend for itself. Turkey, with its boots on the ground and alliances with key opposition forces, is poised to shape Syria’s future in ways Moscow never could.
A New Alliance: Turkey, the US, and Britain
As Russia exits the stage, a new alliance is taking shape. The growing cooperation between Turkey, the United States, and Britain represents a major realignment of regional and global geopolitics. This trio, united by shared interests, has successfully neutralized Russia’s presence in Syria and is now setting the agenda for the Middle East’s future.
This alliance also underscores a crucial shift in Turkey’s foreign policy. For years, certain factions within Ankara entertained the idea of a long-term partnership with Moscow and Beijing, believing it offered an alternative to the West. But recent events have laid bare the flaws in that vision. Russia’s unreliability, combined with its economic fragility, has proven that Ankara’s true strength lies in aligning with democratic powers that share its long-term interests.
The Collapse of Russian Influence
Russia’s retreat from Syria is emblematic of a broader decline in its global influence. What began as a bold intervention in 2015 to prop up the Assad regime has now ended in failure. Putin’s gamble on becoming the ultimate power broker in the Middle East has not only drained Russia’s resources but also exposed its strategic vulnerabilities.
For Turkey, this is more than just a geopolitical win—it is a moment of vindication. The Kremlin’s retreat validates Ankara’s long-held position that Russia’s presence in Syria was unsustainable. Moscow’s departure is not just the end of an era but a turning point that opens the door for Turkey to assert itself as the primary actor in the region.
Syria’s Future: A Turkish-Led Transition
With Russian forces gone, the path is clear for Turkey to lead the reconstruction of Syria. This is not just a matter of rebuilding cities and infrastructure but also of restoring social and political cohesion. Turkey, already hosting millions of Syrian refugees, has the moral and strategic imperative to ensure their safe return. This process, if managed effectively, will solidify Turkey’s leadership role and further diminish the influence of rival powers like Iran.
However, challenges remain. The United States, while aligned with Turkey on many issues, still supports Kurdish groups that Ankara views as existential threats. Similarly, Iran, weakened but still determined, will try to exploit the power vacuum to maintain its foothold in Syria. Turkey’s ability to navigate these complexities will determine the success of its regional strategy.
The Message to Putin
Russia’s retreat from Syria is a reminder of the costs of miscalculating Turkey’s resolve. In 2020, Putin may have thought he held the upper hand by making Turkey wait in the Kremlin. Today, it is Turkey dictating terms in Syria, while Moscow scrambles to maintain its relevance on the global stage. This is not just a military or diplomatic victory for Ankara—it is a historic moment that underscores the resilience and strategic acumen of the Turkish state.
A New Middle East Order
The withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria marks the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle East, one where Turkey’s leadership is unquestionable. With Moscow out of the picture and a rising alliance with the US and Britain, Ankara has the opportunity to redefine the region’s future. This is not just about filling a vacuum but about creating a new order—one that prioritizes stability, growth, and mutual respect among nations.
For Putin, the bill has come due, and it is heavier than he ever imagined. For Turkey, the future has never looked brighter. As it steps into its role as the superpower of the Middle East, the lessons of patience, strategy, and resilience will continue to guide its path forward. The Middle East, once fragmented by foreign powers, is finally seeing the rise of a regional leader that understands its complexities and embraces its potential.
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