HomeElection News

Trump’s tariffs would reorder trade flows, raise costs, draw retaliation

Shipping containers at Pier J at the Port of Long Beach wait for processing in Long Beach, California, U.S., April 4, 2018. REUTERS/Bob Riha Jr./File Photo 

Iowa Farmers’ Concerns over Proposed Tariffs

Iowa farmer Bob Hemesath, chair of Farmers for Free Trade, expressed concern over potential retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports if Donald Trump enacts his proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on other imports. Similar measures during Trump’s 2018-2019 trade conflict with China led to lost market share for U.S. agriculture, benefiting competitors like Brazil and Argentina. Hemesath fears further erosion of American agricultural market access.

Economic and Trade Implications of Tariff Plans

Economists suggest Trump’s proposed tariffs would elevate U.S. duty rates to levels last seen in the 1930s, potentially raising inflation, disrupting U.S.-China trade, and prompting retaliation. The Tax Foundation estimates a 17.7% effective average tariff rate, comparable to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which contributed to the Great Depression. Yale University’s Budget Lab calculates that these tariffs could reduce household income by up to $7,600 annually if extensive levies on global and Chinese imports are imposed.

Trump’s Vision versus Economists’ Concerns

Trump argues that tariffs would strengthen the U.S. manufacturing base and federal revenue. His campaign, citing a Coalition for a Prosperous America study, suggests a universal 10% tariff might boost economic growth and job creation. However, economists widely believe that import tariffs primarily burden domestic businesses, who pass costs onto consumers.

International Trade Responses

Maurice Obstfeld, a former IMF economist, warns that Trump’s approach could destabilize the rules-based trading system established post-World War II. Experts anticipate retaliatory measures from other nations, complicating global trade further.

Harris’s Stance and Alternative Strategy

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has criticized Trump’s tariffs, labeling them a “national sales tax” harmful to U.S. households. She supports targeted tariffs to protect U.S. strategic industries and intends to renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026 to safeguard U.S. automotive jobs.

Trade Policy Mechanisms and Legal Pathways

If elected, Trump could leverage existing trade laws, such as Section 232 and Section 301, to expedite tariff implementation without congressional approval. His advisors include Robert Lighthizer, the architect of previous U.S.-China tariffs, and trade lawyer Nazak Nikakhtar, who asserts that a Section 301 probe could quickly justify new tariffs on Chinese goods.

Subscribe to our newsletter

COMMENTS