As Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second term, his immigration agenda promises a dramatic shift in U.S. policy. With plans to ramp up deportations, end humanitarian programs, and reverse Biden-era policies, Trump’s first 100 days are expected to set the tone for a hardline approach to immigration.
Mass Deportations: Logistical and Legal Challenges
Trump’s campaign promise to deport large swaths of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants will focus on those with criminal convictions or final removal orders. In 2022, over 1.19 million people fell into this category, but achieving these deportations faces significant hurdles:
- Limited ICE resources: ICE’s current workforce of 7,000 officers handles approximately 250,000 deportations annually. Quadrupling this capacity, as Trump has proposed, would require massive investments in personnel, training, and detention infrastructure.
- Immigration court backlog: With an overwhelmed court system, expedited removals could take years to process.
- Potential legal roadblocks: Immigrant advocacy groups are expected to mount legal challenges, potentially delaying implementation.
Trump has insisted the financial and logistical costs are non-negotiable, saying, “It’s not a question of a price tag … we have no choice.”
Ending Parole for Specific Nationalities
The Biden administration’s humanitarian parole program, which allowed over 530,000 people from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to enter the U.S. legally, is likely to be dismantled.
- Trump has pledged to eliminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitians and other nationalities, a move that courts previously blocked during his first term.
- Advocacy groups and Democrats have criticized this approach as unnecessarily harsh, while Trump allies argue it aligns with his broader immigration goals.
Rolling Back Biden’s Immigration Policies
Several key Biden-era initiatives are expected to be reversed swiftly, including:
- Mayorkas Memo: Trump will likely rescind the guidelines prioritizing deportations for those posing security threats, reverting to broader criteria.
- CBP One App: Designed to streamline asylum applications, the app is expected to be discontinued, with Trump allies labeling it a “backdoor for illegal immigration.”
Leveraging Diplomacy for Deportation Cooperation
To overcome resistance from countries reluctant to accept deportees, Trump plans to use visa restrictions and other diplomatic tools as leverage. The Obama and Trump administrations deployed similar tactics, but Biden has largely avoided this approach.
- Early action will likely target countries deemed “problematic” in repatriating migrants, with significant pressure applied within the first 100 days.
Key Personnel Driving Policy
Trump has already assembled a team with a strong focus on immigration:
- Kristi Noem: The South Dakota governor will lead the Department of Homeland Security despite limited experience.
- Stephen Miller: Returning as a domestic policy adviser, Miller is expected to architect many of the administration’s restrictive measures.
- Thomas Homan: Appointed as the border czar, Homan will oversee deportation and border enforcement strategies.
Additionally, Senator Marco Rubio is the frontrunner for Secretary of State, ensuring alignment between immigration and foreign policy efforts.
A Return to “Remain in Mexico”
Restoring the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), also known as the “Remain in Mexico” policy, will require negotiations with Mexico. The program mandates asylum seekers wait south of the border while their cases are processed in U.S. courts.
The Road Ahead
Trump’s immigration plan signals a return to policies aimed at strict enforcement and reduced legal pathways for migrants. However, logistical challenges, legal battles, and international diplomacy will play pivotal roles in determining the success of these initiatives.
COMMENTS