In the days since his criminal conviction in New York, Donald Trump has warned that placing him under house arrest would push America to a “breaking point.”
Trump’s Unyielding Rhetoric
Following his conviction, Trump suggested that if reelected, he could prosecute his political enemies, stating, “Revenge can be justified.” At a rally in Arizona, he declared, “We are not going to have a country anymore,” if his guilty verdict is not overturned on appeal. This rhetoric underscores Trump’s refusal to soften his approach to appeal to more moderate voters, a strategy some Republicans had hoped for.
GOP Reactions to Trump’s Stance
John Watson, former Georgia Republican Party chair, noted, “The former president is never going to get away from those components of his rhetoric. He has made a decision that this is how he wants to litigate this election.” Watson emphasized the need for Trump to pivot towards issues that could sway the electorate’s decision on who is best to lead the country.
Despite calls for moderation, Trump has historically shown little inclination to alter his hardline stance. After his 2020 defeat, the Capitol riot, and the contentious GOP primary, some Republicans urged Trump to adopt a more conciliatory tone. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who beat Trump in a primary this year, warned that Trump “would be smart to reach out” to her supporters rather than assume their automatic allegiance.
Impact on Voter Perception
Trump’s rhetoric post-conviction has resurfaced concerns among Republicans. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) highlighted the potential negative impact on voters, stating, “Trump should be conscious” of how his rhetoric affects voter perception. Polls indicate that the trial could be a losing issue for Trump, with a New York Times/Siena College poll showing a decrease in Trump’s lead over Biden post-verdict. A CBS News/YouGov poll revealed that 56% of adults believe Trump received a fair trial, contradicting his claim of a rigged process.
The Strategy Moving Forward
Sarah Longwell, executive director of Republican Voters Against Trump, noted that Trump has yet to appeal to center-right voters and may not believe he needs to. She suggested that frustration with Biden and the economy might drive suburban swing voters back to Trump, but his conviction and the events of January 6 continue to deter many.
In a focus group conducted by Longwell after the verdict, two-time Trump voters expressed their unwillingness to support him again, viewing the conviction as further proof of his unfitness for office.
Trump’s Continued Hardline Messaging
At a rally in Arizona, Trump reinforced his hardline messaging, demanding that an appeals court reverse his conviction. His campaign has leveraged this rhetoric to raise significant funds from online donors. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) defended Trump’s approach, emphasizing the importance of stating his perspective clearly.
The Path to the General Election
Republican strategist Barrett Marson pointed out that while Trump’s rhetoric may energize his base, he needs to provide more substantial reasons for moderate, right-leaning independents to support him in the general election. Marson suggested Trump focus on policies to reduce gas prices, interest rates, and inflation to broaden his appeal.
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