Donald Trump’s pollsters argued he could withstand a guilty verdict, believing that a conviction in a case prosecuted by a Democrat in a deep-blue state was already factored into his political image. Now, they are about to find out if their assumption holds true.
The Verdict’s Impact on the Margins
The guilty verdict isn’t revealing anything new about Trump to Americans. The details of the case were well-publicized before the trial began. In today’s polarized political environment, the number of undecided voters is minimal, and most Americans view the hush money case as less severe compared to Trump’s other legal issues. However, in a close presidential election, even a marginal impact could be crucial. Some polling indicates that at least a few voters might be swayed. For instance, a Quinnipiac University survey found that 6 percent of Trump supporters would be less likely to vote for him if he were convicted.
This shift doesn’t necessarily mean Republicans will switch to voting for another candidate. It could result in them voting third-party or abstaining altogether. Even a small percentage change could significantly impact the election outcome. Conversely, the conviction could also galvanize Trump’s base, enhancing voter turnout in his favor.
Trump is already leveraging the trial outcome to rally his supporters, framing the verdict as part of a political battle to be decided in the November election. “The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people,” Trump stated.
Caution with Early Polls
Expect a flurry of immediate post-verdict polls, but their reliability should be questioned. Early polling may not accurately reflect long-term voter sentiment. Initial polls following major news events are often hastily conducted and may not capture enduring opinions.
Public opinion can shift dramatically over time. For example, initial reactions to the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, saw many Republicans distancing themselves from Trump. However, months later, opinions realigned along traditional partisan lines.
The upcoming sentencing in July will provide another significant moment that could further influence public opinion.
Alvin Bragg’s Rise in Democratic Politics
Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan District Attorney, has become a notable figure in Democratic circles. Bragg, who campaigned on holding Trump accountable, has now cemented his status by securing a guilty verdict on all 34 counts. Bragg, the first prosecutor to take on a former president, can now shape his political future with this landmark case behind him.
“While this defendant may be like no other in American history, we arrived at this trial and ultimately today at this verdict in the same manner as every other case,” Bragg said post-verdict.
Democratic Reactions Vary
President Joe Biden’s allies are divided on how to handle Trump’s guilty verdict. Some are cautious, issuing measured statements, while others are more aggressive, using the verdict to highlight Trump’s unfitness for office. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker labeled Trump “a felon” and denounced him vehemently, whereas Sen. Elizabeth Warren stressed the importance of the judicial process over politics.
Biden’s Upcoming Challenges
Biden’s campaign faces its own hurdles, especially with his son Hunter Biden’s upcoming trial on criminal charges. This could give Republicans a chance to draw parallels between Trump’s and Hunter Biden’s legal troubles.
Conclusion
The guilty verdict against Trump introduces uncharted territory for his campaign. While it may not drastically change his hardcore support base, it could influence undecided voters and marginal supporters. The political landscape will continue to evolve, particularly with forthcoming events like the sentencing and Hunter Biden’s trial. The 2024 presidential race promises to be a high-stakes contest, with legal and political battles intertwined.
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