Former President Donald Trump’s recent guilty verdict is impacting his poll numbers, according to data released on Wednesday. A New York Times/Siena College poll reveals that Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden shrank from three points to just one after the verdict.
Impact on Poll Numbers
The New York Times/Siena College re-canvassing of 2,000 voters reflects the first conviction of a former president and presidential candidate. This data, although a snapshot, indicates a notable shift in voter sentiment. Before the verdict, most Americans viewed the hush money case as less serious compared to Trump’s other legal issues.
The slight shift was especially prominent among young, nonwhite, and less engaged Democratic-leaning voters. Notably, 20% of Trump’s previous Black supporters are now backing Biden, while only 2% of non-Black previous Trump supporters have switched to Biden.
Public Opinion on the Verdict
The New York Times/Siena College poll showed that 46% of respondents approved of the guilty verdict, while 33% disapproved and 16% hadn’t heard enough to form an opinion. This aligns with other polls released shortly after the verdict. A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that 10% of Republican registered voters are less likely to vote for Trump following the verdict. Additionally, a Morning Consult poll revealed that Biden gained three percentage points, reaching 45%, while Trump’s support remained steady at 44%.
Details of the Verdict
Trump became the first former president to be convicted of felony crimes for falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels. A 12-person jury delivered a unanimous verdict, concluding the six-week trial. Despite the conviction, Trump plans to appeal the verdict and has used it to criticize the criminal justice system and raise campaign funds. His campaign reported collecting $141 million in May, with nearly 38% of donations coming soon after the verdict.
Methodology of the Poll
The New York Times/Siena College recontact poll surveyed 1,897 registered voters nationwide on June 3 and 4, 2024. The survey was conducted via cell and landline telephones, offering a comprehensive view of voter reactions to the verdict.
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