In 2016, Donald Trump won the support of white evangelicals by promising to appoint conservative Supreme Court justices to overturn Roe v. Wade. Eight years later, these voters now find themselves uneasy as Trump softens his rhetoric on abortion, raising concerns that some may stay home in the upcoming election, potentially tipping key battleground states in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump’s inconsistent stance on abortion, highlighted by his recent vow to vote “no” on a Florida ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights and comments suggesting possible opposition to the state’s six-week abortion ban, has left anti-abortion activists alarmed. Albert Mohler, head of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, expressed concern that Trump’s “attempt to run against his own track record” could reduce evangelical voter turnout. Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, emphasized the need for Trump to offer more than a mere opposition to Harris, stating that voters must have a reason to vote for him and his policies.
Trump’s Shift and Evangelical Concerns
Trump’s earlier actions to appoint judges that led to the overturning of Roe were celebrated by pro-life voters. Yet, his recent attempts to moderate his stance have caused unease within his base, especially as Democrats capitalize on the post-Roe political landscape. For evangelicals, abortion remains a central issue, and Trump’s wavering position threatens to erode his support.
While polling shows Trump still holding strong with white evangelicals—with a Fox News poll placing him at 75% support, down slightly from 2020—analysts caution that he needs to maintain at least 80% of their backing to secure victory. Trump’s Believers for Trump coalition is working hard to rally this core demographic, with efforts led by Ralph Reed of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, aiming to distribute millions of voter guides and knock on 10 million doors.
Can Harris Benefit?
Harris’ position on abortion rights is clear: she supports codifying Roe at the federal level and is a vocal proponent of reproductive rights. This offers a sharp contrast to Trump’s recent ambiguity, and Democrats hope to exploit this to gain votes among disillusioned evangelicals. According to Michael Wear, Barack Obama’s former faith outreach adviser, Harris could improve on Biden’s 2020 performance with white evangelicals, potentially flipping key states like Georgia and Michigan.
While Harris herself is a Baptist, it remains unclear whether her campaign will directly target evangelical voters. Texas state Rep. James Talarico suggested Harris could do more to win over white evangelicals, noting a unique opportunity to bring them into the Democratic fold, especially in light of Trump’s evolving stance on abortion.
Evangelicals Weigh Their Options
Evangelical leaders like Mohler and Perkins are urging Trump to clarify his position on abortion and to reassure his base with concrete actions, such as conservative judicial appointments and ensuring that federal funding will not support abortions. Without this clarity, there is a risk that some evangelicals will be reluctant to cast their ballots for him.
In contrast, some Trump supporters believe that the stark difference between Harris and Trump on abortion will ultimately be enough to galvanize evangelical voters. Reed, for example, argues that Harris’ “extreme” abortion position will be unpalatable to many evangelicals, as well as to blue-collar Roman Catholics in key states.
Conclusion
Trump’s struggle to maintain evangelical support highlights broader challenges within the Republican Party. His attempt to moderate on abortion could alienate a vital constituency, while Harris may seize the opportunity to sway disillusioned voters. As the 2024 election approaches, Trump must offer more than just opposition to Harris—he must give evangelicals a reason to vote for him.
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