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Trump Solidifies Grip on California as GOP Rivals Flounder

Former President Donald Trump's dominance in California's GOP primary race for 2024 is becoming increasingly evident. With deep-rooted loyalty from Republican voters and strategic delegate rules changes in his favor, Trump's position is formidable. Here's an overview of the current state of California's GOP and the path ahead.

Donald Trump’s lead in California in many respects mirrors the national picture. And it’s no accident. | Artie Walker Jr./AP Photo

Trump’s Commanding Support

Donald Trump enjoys unwavering support from California’s Republican grassroots. His stronghold remains intact, with many Republicans firmly believing in his leadership. Despite the passage of time since the 2020 election, Trump’s appeal remains undiminished among his California base.

Challenges for Never-Trump Republicans

Never-Trump Republicans face a daunting reality. Trump’s continued popularity within the party has left those opposing him in a state of denial. Some establishment donors are desperately seeking an alternative candidate, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis once seen as a potential contender. However, DeSantis has not gained the traction some expected.

Trump’s California Strategy

While Trump refuses to participate in the debate at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, his massive polling lead in California makes his victory all but certain. Trump’s polling numbers now exceed 50 percent in the state. Consequently, some of his rivals have redirected their efforts to more competitive states, such as Iowa.

Trump’s Appeal in the State

Trump’s popularity in California mirrors the broader national sentiment within the Republican Party. California’s Republican base, predominantly white, male, Christian, and often without college degrees, aligns with Trump’s core demographic. Despite the state’s liberal reputation, Trump maintains a significant following among its GOP primary electorate.

Shift in Delegate Rules

The summer of 2023 marked a turning point for Trump’s competition. Delegates rules changes, endorsed by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, significantly favor Trump. A candidate winning over 50 percent of the statewide vote on March 5 will secure a substantial delegate count, making it challenging for other contenders to compete.

Advertising Challenges

Campaigning in California poses unique challenges due to its expensive media market. Statewide television ads are prohibitively costly, further limiting Trump’s opponents’ ability to challenge him.

National Focus for Rivals

For Trump’s rivals, particularly DeSantis, the focus has shifted to early states like Iowa and New Hampshire, where there’s enough funding for campaigns to make an impact. While the situation remains fluid, California’s importance in the primary race has diminished, at least for now.

The Impact of Trump’s Absence

Trump’s decision to skip the debate stage in Southern California has dampened the enthusiasm of other candidates and their supporters. His presence would undoubtedly draw more attention, leaving rivals with the challenging task of standing out in his absence.

A Strategic Move

While some may lament Trump’s absence from the debates, it aligns with a strategic decision to avoid sharing the stage with candidates trailing significantly behind him. From a campaign consultant’s perspective, it makes sense to maintain this position of strength.

In summary, California’s GOP primary landscape is undeniably dominated by Donald Trump. His enduring appeal among the Republican base, coupled with strategic delegate rules changes, positions him for a triumphant return in 2024. For his rivals, the focus has shifted to early primary states, where they hope to gain ground as the primary season progresses.

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