President-elect Donald Trump’s second administration is already grappling with a high-stakes challenge that could define its trajectory. After a Trump-backed continuing resolution and debt ceiling package failed with 38 House Republicans voting against it, House Speaker Mike Johnson is scrambling to devise a “Plan C” to fund the government before funding runs out at midnight.
Johnson’s Balancing Act
Johnson faces the unenviable task of crafting a solution that satisfies President-elect Trump, appeases House conservatives, garners Democratic support, and passes the Senate, all while maintaining his position as Speaker. Ideas on the table include a “clean” continuing resolution to buy time, but internal debates suggest a shutdown might be strategically advantageous.
Trump and Johnson have both reportedly weighed the potential positives and negatives of allowing a shutdown. Unlike previous standoffs, this one doesn’t come right before an election, and some Republicans believe they can endure the political fallout better now than in past fights.
Trump’s Shutdown Strategy
Trump’s position appears driven by concerns over future debt ceiling negotiations. He believes Democrats will demand politically untenable concessions, leading to either a Republican cave or a catastrophic breach of the debt ceiling. Early Friday morning, Trump declared: “Congress must get rid of, or extend out to, perhaps, 2029, the ridiculous Debt Ceiling. Without this, we should never make a deal.”
However, history shows shutdowns rarely yield the desired results for the initiating party. Trump’s 2018-2019 shutdown failed to secure funding for his border wall, and Democrats didn’t achieve protections for Dreamers during their shutdown fight. The current scenario risks repeating this pattern, with Trump’s team concerned about potential public backlash and a drop in his record-high polling numbers.
Political and Policy Implications
Vice President-elect JD Vance is attempting to frame Democrats as responsible for the looming shutdown, but Trump’s involvement makes this a challenging narrative. If a shutdown occurs, headlines about unpaid government workers and military personnel over the holidays are inevitable. Public sentiment could swing against the GOP, undermining Trump’s momentum.
Policy goals may also suffer. Trump’s ambitious agenda, including passing a border bill within his first 30 days, would likely be delayed as Republicans focus on extracting debt ceiling concessions. Even if successful, a shutdown could result in Trump’s first major legislative achievement being a debt ceiling hike—hardly an energizing start for his base.
What’s Next?
As the clock ticks down, the decision to avert or embrace a shutdown rests with Trump and Johnson. While Trump appears eager for a confrontation, the political and logistical realities suggest significant risks. “We’ll see what happens,” Trump says. For now, Washington waits to see if Johnson can navigate this critical test without jeopardizing the incoming administration’s agenda.
COMMENTS