
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meet at Trump Tower in New York City, U.S., September 27, 2024. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo
Trump’s Timeline for Resolving Ukraine Conflict Adjusted
Shift in Promises
Advisers to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump now acknowledge that resolving the war in Ukraine will take months or even longer, reflecting a significant departure from his campaign claims of achieving peace on his first day in office.
Two associates who have discussed Ukraine with Trump described the initial promises as campaign rhetoric and noted the complexities of the conflict and administrative transitions. Trump’s incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, has extended the expected timeline, stating he hopes for a resolution within 100 days—a goal analysts deem overly optimistic.
Expert Perspective
John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, highlighted the challenge: “For this to work, Trump has to persuade [Russian President Vladimir] Putin that there’s a downside for being intransigent.”
Evolving Rhetoric
During his campaign, Trump repeatedly declared he would secure a deal between Ukraine and Russia on Day One. By late October, his rhetoric shifted to achieving a solution “very quickly.” Since his election, he has walked back timelines further, emphasizing his intent to “solve” the conflict without specifying deadlines.
In December, Trump acknowledged the complexities of the Ukraine war, calling it more challenging than negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza.
Mixed Russian Responses
The Kremlin has expressed openness to direct talks with Trump while dismissing some proposals from his advisers as unrealistic. Russia’s UN ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, labeled the suggested peace plans as “nothing of interest.”
Potential Peace Plan
The Trump administration is reportedly considering removing NATO membership for Ukraine as an option in the near term and freezing current battle lines. Additionally, there is discussion about offering Ukraine a material security guarantee, such as establishing a demilitarized zone patrolled by European forces.
Challenges to Diplomatic Progress
Despite Trump’s assertions, significant battlefield advances by Russia, achieved at great cost, may incentivize the Kremlin to delay negotiations while consolidating territorial gains.
Preparatory Efforts Stalled
Kellogg postponed a planned fact-finding visit to Kyiv before the inauguration, citing concerns about violating the Logan Act, which restricts private citizens from engaging in foreign diplomacy.
Trump acknowledged the human toll of the conflict but said it would be inappropriate to meet Putin before his inauguration: “I hate [the delay] because every day… many, many young people are being killed.”
Administrative Coordination
Trump’s incoming administration is still navigating internal roles and responsibilities among agencies such as the State Department and National Security Council, complicating efforts to launch a cohesive strategy.
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