The U.S. elections have concluded, and the new President who will govern the country for the next four years has been announced. The individuals who will work alongside the President are also being revealed one by one. The uncertainty that gripped the nation before the election has dissipated. Now, everyone is speculating about what the future holds. Hundreds of analyses flood television screens, newspapers, and social media. It’s no easy task to predict the implications of a leadership change in the world’s largest economic and military power—a country whose actions influence even the most remote tribal communities.
Trump’s Promise: Ending Wars
One of Trump’s most significant promises regarding foreign policy was, “I will end the wars.” Naturally, this brings to mind two prominent conflicts: the Russia-Ukraine war and the potential for an Israel-Iran war. In my previous articles, I discussed the root causes of these conflicts. Can Trump fulfill his promise to end these wars? While I cannot say for certain, analyzing the reasons behind these conflicts leads me to conclude that it’s unlikely. Why?
Europe: A Strategic Chessboard
The U.S. views two entities as its global competitors: China and the European Union (EU). After World War II, the war-ravaged European states realized that their only chance to counterbalance a giant like the U.S. was through unity. The European Union was born with the motto of creating a counterweight to U.S. dominance. However, the EU has failed to become a full-fledged balancing force, primarily due to internal political and economic discord. Brexit further highlighted cracks within the Union.
Meanwhile, the U.S. skillfully used NATO and transatlantic economic relations to maintain control over Europe. Against this backdrop, Russia attacked Ukraine under questionable pretexts, bringing the scent of gunpowder to European capitals. While Europe recognizes the geopolitical game at play, its responses are limited. Every time Europe attempts action, it faces Putin’s nuclear threats. So, who benefits most from Russia’s aggression? Think about it. The answer is clear: the U.S.
China: A Long-Term Threat
China is perceived as a far greater long-term threat to U.S. dominance. This is due to China’s rapidly growing economic and technological prowess. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is reshaping global trade networks in its favor. In response, the U.S. is countering with strategies like the Indo-Pacific Strategy to curb China’s rise.
Before the U.S. can face China in a “grand finale,” it needs to settle its accounts in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel using paramotors, while Israel retaliated with measures so brutal that they drew global condemnation. The chaos extends to Iran’s borders, setting the stage for the U.S. to secure its foothold in the region. This is the reality of the situation.
Can Trump’s Vision Align With U.S. Global Strategy?
In such a complex geopolitical climate, Trump’s promise to “end wars” becomes questionable. The Russia-Ukraine war has become a tool that strengthens U.S. transatlantic hegemony, while the Middle Eastern conflicts serve as a preparatory phase for the U.S. in its strategic rivalry with China.
Ending wars, therefore, is not just about stopping violence on the battlefield. It is intrinsically tied to how these conflicts align with U.S. strategic interests. Wars might evolve in nature or form, but their complete cessation seems unlikely. Whether Trump can fulfill his promise is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the U.S. will continue leveraging global conflicts to bolster its role in the global power hierarchy.
Conclusion: A Strategic Continuum
Trump’s pledge to end wars is as much about strategy as it is about diplomacy. While he might halt certain conflicts, the broader geopolitical calculations suggest that the U.S. will remain deeply entrenched in its global agenda. The real question is not whether wars will end but how they will transform to align with the strategic imperatives of a global superpower.
Photos by
1) Photo illustration by Slate. Photos by Brandon Bell/Getty Images and Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images.
2) U.S. President Donald Trump, right, clears dandruff off French President Emmanuel Macron’s jacket in the White House Oval Office in Washington on April 24. (Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images)
3) President Trump at the Israel Museum. Jerusalem May 23, 2017 Photo credit: U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv President Trump at the Israel Museum. Jerusalem May 23, 2017
COMMENTS