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The Times/Siena College Swing-State Polls: A Closer Look at the 2024 Election Landscape

Voting in Las Vegas during the 2022 midterm elections. The Senate race in Nevada was won by less than one percentage point.Credit…Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times

In recent days, The New York Times, in collaboration with Siena College, released a comprehensive set of polls conducted in six crucial swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states played a pivotal role in the 2020 election, with five of them being won by Donald J. Trump in 2016 and then flipped by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. Nevada, always a closely contested state, saw a Senate race in 2022 decided by less than one percentage point.

The primary objective of these polls was to delve into the diverse demographics and political leanings of voters within these states. The sample size included 600 respondents from each state, providing a nuanced understanding of various voter subgroups, including age, race, ethnicity, income, education level, and party affiliation. This extensive survey comprised a total of 3,600 respondents, making it the most extensive collection of swing state voter data to date. Notably, the study also encompassed over 700 undecided voters, a group anticipated to wield significant influence in these critical states.

This effort echoes a similar initiative undertaken in 2019, reflecting a consistent commitment to understanding the political landscape early in the election cycle. During this period, Democrats were navigating a contested nominating contest, with divergent factions within the party supporting candidates like Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, as well as the eventual nominee, Mr. Biden. The aim of both polls has remained consistent: to shed light on the key issues shaping the election and to gauge voters’ inclinations toward the leading candidates.

These polls provide valuable insights into the electorate’s mindset, encompassing a wide range of political affiliations and demographic backgrounds.

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