The sudden fall of Aleppo to an alliance led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an al Qaeda offshoot, has sent shockwaves through Syria and the region. In a rapid 72-hour offensive, Islamist militias routed Bashar Assad’s forces, reclaiming Syria’s second-largest city and reigniting a civil war that had been in a stalemate since 2020.
The implications are profound. Aleppo’s fall is not just a blow to Assad but also a setback for his key allies, Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, whose roles in propping up the regime have been thrown into question. Meanwhile, Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, emerges as a pivotal player with a complex agenda in Syria’s reshaping.
Assad’s Imploding Forces
At the heart of Aleppo’s collapse lies the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) glaring weaknesses. Years of corruption, poor morale, and economic ruin have hollowed out Assad’s forces. As former U.S. diplomat Alberto M. Fernandez described:
“The SAA is a hollowed-out shell, far weaker than its ostensible numbers and weapons would indicate.”
Reports highlight demoralized troops, officers taking bribes, and units crumbling under minimal resistance. This mirrors the failures seen in Afghanistan’s forces after years of U.S. support, raising doubts about Assad’s ability to hold territory.
Iran and Hezbollah’s Diminished Support
For Iran, Aleppo’s fall is a strategic embarrassment. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed Israel for the debacle, but Tehran’s inability to mobilize significant reinforcements for Assad tells another story. Hezbollah, weakened by Israeli strikes and overstretched resources, has refrained from sending substantial forces to Syria.
According to Lebanese sources, Hezbollah and Iran are reluctant to escalate their involvement, leaving Assad increasingly isolated. The vacuum exposes not only Assad’s fragility but also Iran’s declining influence in the region.
Erdoğan’s Balancing Act
Turkey, meanwhile, appears to be orchestrating events behind the scenes. Although Erdoğan publicly lamented the violence, the offensive aligns with Turkey’s broader strategy to pressure Assad into reconciliation and curb Kurdish autonomy along its border.
The Turkish-sponsored Syrian National Army (SNA) played a key role in the assault, targeting Kurdish-controlled areas in tandem with HTS. Turkey’s goals include repatriating Syrian refugees and consolidating its influence in northern Syria.
Observers argue the Aleppo offensive served as a calculated move by Ankara to reshape dynamics, with Erdoğan leveraging instability to push Assad into negotiations.
Russia’s Limited Role
Russia’s muted response further complicates the picture. Preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, Moscow has only offered limited air support to Assad’s forces. Analysts speculate that the Kremlin, like Turkey, may see Aleppo’s fall as an opportunity to force Assad into a political settlement.
Russia has long sought to broker reconciliation between Assad and Erdoğan, envisioning a deal that stabilizes Syria while securing Russian military and economic interests. Aleppo’s fall may accelerate these efforts.
The Path Ahead
The Aleppo offensive has upended Syria’s fragile status quo, raising questions about the country’s future. If HTS consolidates its hold on Aleppo, it could attempt to establish an Islamist regime akin to its governance in Idlib. Alternatively, further advances southward could provoke unpredictable escalation, potentially destabilizing Erdoğan’s careful balancing act.
Meanwhile, the renewed push for diplomacy sees Turkey, Iran, and Russia preparing a three-way negotiation to address Syria’s conflict. As Iranian and Turkish officials meet to discuss next steps, the focus shifts to whether Assad will finally bend to pressure and engage with opposition forces and regional powers.
For now, the battle for Syria’s future remains deeply uncertain, with regional actors scrambling to shape outcomes while Assad clings to his crumbling regime.
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